Market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 stand at 71 percent, driven primarily by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market that have prompted the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent through its April meeting. Recent geopolitical developments, including Middle East conflicts that elevated energy prices, have reinforced trader expectations for a cautious policy stance, shifting consensus away from earlier projections of one or two reductions this year. CME FedWatch data and broker forecasts from firms like BofA and Goldman Sachs align with this outlook, highlighting limited scope for easing absent significant cooling in core CPI or notable weakening in employment indicators. Key upcoming catalysts include the May and June FOMC meetings, where fresh inflation and jobs data could influence any reassessment of the rate path.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0（0ベーシスポイント） 71.0%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 16%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 2.7%
$26,863,579 Vol.
$26,863,579 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
71%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
16%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
3%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
2%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
1%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
<1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
<1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
1%
0（0ベーシスポイント） 71.0%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 16%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 2.7%
$26,863,579 Vol.
$26,863,579 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
$4,184,818 Vol.
71%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
$1,244,245 Vol.
16%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
$1,203,687 Vol.
7%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
$1,113,699 Vol.
3%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
$1,194,165 Vol.
2%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
$1,414,890 Vol.
1%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
$2,483,573 Vol.
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
$1,322,069 Vol.
<1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
$1,725,652 Vol.
<1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
$2,449,306 Vol.
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
$3,115,545 Vol.
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
$3,262,984 Vol.
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
$2,148,945 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 stand at 71 percent, driven primarily by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market that have prompted the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent through its April meeting. Recent geopolitical developments, including Middle East conflicts that elevated energy prices, have reinforced trader expectations for a cautious policy stance, shifting consensus away from earlier projections of one or two reductions this year. CME FedWatch data and broker forecasts from firms like BofA and Goldman Sachs align with this outlook, highlighting limited scope for easing absent significant cooling in core CPI or notable weakening in employment indicators. Key upcoming catalysts include the May and June FOMC meetings, where fresh inflation and jobs data could influence any reassessment of the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
マーケット開始日： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$26,863,579終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 stand at 71 percent, driven primarily by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market that have prompted the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent through its April meeting. Recent geopolitical developments, including Middle East conflicts that elevated energy prices, have reinforced trader expectations for a cautious policy stance, shifting consensus away from earlier projections of one or two reductions this year. CME FedWatch data and broker forecasts from firms like BofA and Goldman Sachs align with this outlook, highlighting limited scope for easing absent significant cooling in core CPI or notable weakening in employment indicators. Key upcoming catalysts include the May and June FOMC meetings, where fresh inflation and jobs data could influence any reassessment of the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$26,863,579終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 stand at 71 percent, driven primarily by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market that have prompted the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent through its April meeting. Recent geopolitical developments, including Middle East conflicts that elevated energy prices, have reinforced trader expectations for a cautious policy stance, shifting consensus away from earlier projections of one or two reductions this year. CME FedWatch data and broker forecasts from firms like BofA and Goldman Sachs align with this outlook, highlighting limited scope for easing absent significant cooling in core CPI or notable weakening in employment indicators. Key upcoming catalysts include the May and June FOMC meetings, where fresh inflation and jobs data could influence any reassessment of the rate path.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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