Persistent inflation pressures, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, remain the main driver behind the near-even odds on a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, as energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions have kept price growth above the 2% target. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50-3.75%, with recent FOMC minutes and dissents signaling some officials favor tightening, while softer jobs data and modest monthly CPI gains create counterbalancing caution among traders. Upcoming September CPI and employment reports, followed by the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, represent key swing factors that could shift market-implied probabilities decisively in either direction.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
52% 確率
$7,418,185 Vol.
$7,418,185 Vol.
2026/12/09
はい
52% 確率
$7,418,185 Vol.
$7,418,185 Vol.
2026/12/09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, remain the main driver behind the near-even odds on a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, as energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions have kept price growth above the 2% target. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50-3.75%, with recent FOMC minutes and dissents signaling some officials favor tightening, while softer jobs data and modest monthly CPI gains create counterbalancing caution among traders. Upcoming September CPI and employment reports, followed by the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, represent key swing factors that could shift market-implied probabilities decisively in either direction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
音量
$7,418,185終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, remain the main driver behind the near-even odds on a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, as energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions have kept price growth above the 2% target. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50-3.75%, with recent FOMC minutes and dissents signaling some officials favor tightening, while softer jobs data and modest monthly CPI gains create counterbalancing caution among traders. Upcoming September CPI and employment reports, followed by the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, represent key swing factors that could shift market-implied probabilities decisively in either direction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$7,418,185終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, remain the main driver behind the near-even odds on a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, as energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions have kept price growth above the 2% target. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50-3.75%, with recent FOMC minutes and dissents signaling some officials favor tightening, while softer jobs data and modest monthly CPI gains create counterbalancing caution among traders. Upcoming September CPI and employment reports, followed by the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, represent key swing factors that could shift market-implied probabilities decisively in either direction.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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