Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside supply shocks from energy prices have shifted market-implied odds toward a potential 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike, with CME FedWatch currently assigning roughly 55% probability to action at the September FOMC meeting versus a 45% chance of holding steady at the 3.50-3.75% target range. The July FOMC decision to pause drew three dissents favoring a hike, reflecting divided views under Chair Kevin Warsh, while softer June core CPI and a weaker jobs report have tempered some expectations. Traders are monitoring the next CPI release and labor data for signals on whether elevated inflation will prove persistent enough to prompt tightening before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$2,196,387 Vol.
2026/12/09
9月会合
31%
10月会合
46%
$2,196,387 Vol.
9月会合
$806,115 Vol.
31%
10月会合
$430,272 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside supply shocks from energy prices have shifted market-implied odds toward a potential 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike, with CME FedWatch currently assigning roughly 55% probability to action at the September FOMC meeting versus a 45% chance of holding steady at the 3.50-3.75% target range. The July FOMC decision to pause drew three dissents favoring a hike, reflecting divided views under Chair Kevin Warsh, while softer June core CPI and a weaker jobs report have tempered some expectations. Traders are monitoring the next CPI release and labor data for signals on whether elevated inflation will prove persistent enough to prompt tightening before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$2,196,387終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside supply shocks from energy prices have shifted market-implied odds toward a potential 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike, with CME FedWatch currently assigning roughly 55% probability to action at the September FOMC meeting versus a 45% chance of holding steady at the 3.50-3.75% target range. The July FOMC decision to pause drew three dissents favoring a hike, reflecting divided views under Chair Kevin Warsh, while softer June core CPI and a weaker jobs report have tempered some expectations. Traders are monitoring the next CPI release and labor data for signals on whether elevated inflation will prove persistent enough to prompt tightening before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$2,196,387終了日
2026/10/29マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside supply shocks from energy prices have shifted market-implied odds toward a potential 25 basis point Fed funds rate hike, with CME FedWatch currently assigning roughly 55% probability to action at the September FOMC meeting versus a 45% chance of holding steady at the 3.50-3.75% target range. The July FOMC decision to pause drew three dissents favoring a hike, reflecting divided views under Chair Kevin Warsh, while softer June core CPI and a weaker jobs report have tempered some expectations. Traders are monitoring the next CPI release and labor data for signals on whether elevated inflation will prove persistent enough to prompt tightening before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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