Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 97.3% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds target range through the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, reflecting consensus on sustained pauses amid persistent inflation pressures. The April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%—coupled with a stronger-than-expected 115,000 nonfarm payroll gain, has solidified the Fed's hawkish stance after unchanged rates at 3.5%-3.75% in both prior meetings. Chair Powell's April 29 remarks emphasized data-dependent policy, with labor market resilience and sticky core inflation curbing cut expectations. Realistic challenges include a sharp weakening in May jobs or CPI data ahead of June, though current trader sentiment backed by real capital sees minimal upside for cuts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 97.2%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 1.9%
その他 1.3%
$1,068,488 Vol.
$1,068,488 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
97%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
2%
その他
1%
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き 97.2%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ 1.9%
その他 1.3%
$1,068,488 Vol.
$1,068,488 Vol.
2026/06/17
据え置き・据え置き・据え置き
$55,698 Vol.
97%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
$27,054 Vol.
2%
その他
$240,394 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 97.3% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds target range through the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, reflecting consensus on sustained pauses amid persistent inflation pressures. The April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%—coupled with a stronger-than-expected 115,000 nonfarm payroll gain, has solidified the Fed's hawkish stance after unchanged rates at 3.5%-3.75% in both prior meetings. Chair Powell's April 29 remarks emphasized data-dependent policy, with labor market resilience and sticky core inflation curbing cut expectations. Realistic challenges include a sharp weakening in May jobs or CPI data ahead of June, though current trader sentiment backed by real capital sees minimal upside for cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
音量
$1,068,488終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 97.3% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds target range through the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, reflecting consensus on sustained pauses amid persistent inflation pressures. The April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%—coupled with a stronger-than-expected 115,000 nonfarm payroll gain, has solidified the Fed's hawkish stance after unchanged rates at 3.5%-3.75% in both prior meetings. Chair Powell's April 29 remarks emphasized data-dependent policy, with labor market resilience and sticky core inflation curbing cut expectations. Realistic challenges include a sharp weakening in May jobs or CPI data ahead of June, though current trader sentiment backed by real capital sees minimal upside for cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$1,068,488終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 97.3% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds target range through the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17 FOMC meetings, reflecting consensus on sustained pauses amid persistent inflation pressures. The April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%—coupled with a stronger-than-expected 115,000 nonfarm payroll gain, has solidified the Fed's hawkish stance after unchanged rates at 3.5%-3.75% in both prior meetings. Chair Powell's April 29 remarks emphasized data-dependent policy, with labor market resilience and sticky core inflation curbing cut expectations. Realistic challenges include a sharp weakening in May jobs or CPI data ahead of June, though current trader sentiment backed by real capital sees minimal upside for cuts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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