Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that tempers easing expectations. April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs and unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, signaling persistent inflation pressures and a robust labor market. The Fed's April 28-29 decision to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, affirmed by Chair Powell as appropriately positioned, further anchors this positioning amid four hawkish dissents. Upcoming May CPI (early June release) and the June 17 FOMC could challenge this if inflation cools sharply or job growth falters significantly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 93%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 4.3%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 2.5%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ 1.1%
$5,344,633 Vol.
$5,344,633 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
4%
変更なし
93%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
2%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
<1%
変更なし 93%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 4.3%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 2.5%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ 1.1%
$5,344,633 Vol.
$5,344,633 Vol.
2026/07/29
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$507,371 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$395,298 Vol.
4%
変更なし
$621,665 Vol.
93%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$3,356,583 Vol.
2%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$463,715 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that tempers easing expectations. April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs and unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, signaling persistent inflation pressures and a robust labor market. The Fed's April 28-29 decision to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, affirmed by Chair Powell as appropriately positioned, further anchors this positioning amid four hawkish dissents. Upcoming May CPI (early June release) and the June 17 FOMC could challenge this if inflation cools sharply or job growth falters significantly.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$5,344,633終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that tempers easing expectations. April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs and unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, signaling persistent inflation pressures and a robust labor market. The Fed's April 28-29 decision to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, affirmed by Chair Powell as appropriately positioned, further anchors this positioning amid four hawkish dissents. Upcoming May CPI (early June release) and the June 17 FOMC could challenge this if inflation cools sharply or job growth falters significantly.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$5,344,633終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 92.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that tempers easing expectations. April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs and unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, signaling persistent inflation pressures and a robust labor market. The Fed's April 28-29 decision to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, affirmed by Chair Powell as appropriately positioned, further anchors this positioning amid four hawkish dissents. Upcoming May CPI (early June release) and the June 17 FOMC could challenge this if inflation cools sharply or job growth falters significantly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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