Trader consensus in the Fed decisions market through July heavily favors a steady policy rate across the next three meetings, with Pause–Pause–Pause carrying a 93% implied probability. This positioning stems from the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid inflation readings that remain above the 2% target and a labor market that continues to show resilience, reducing immediate pressure for cuts. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that officials will prioritize waiting for clearer disinflation signals rather than front-loading easing. A sharper-than-expected rise in unemployment or a sustained drop in core inflation below 2.2% could shift the path toward earlier reductions, though such developments would need to materialize quickly to alter the current trajectory before the July meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 7.0%
Other 3.4%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.6%
$49,000 Vol.
$49,000 Vol.
2026/07/29
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
7%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 7.0%
Other 3.4%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.6%
$49,000 Vol.
$49,000 Vol.
2026/07/29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,596 Vol.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,636 Vol.
7%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,620 Vol.
2%
Other
$1,595 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus in the Fed decisions market through July heavily favors a steady policy rate across the next three meetings, with Pause–Pause–Pause carrying a 93% implied probability. This positioning stems from the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid inflation readings that remain above the 2% target and a labor market that continues to show resilience, reducing immediate pressure for cuts. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that officials will prioritize waiting for clearer disinflation signals rather than front-loading easing. A sharper-than-expected rise in unemployment or a sustained drop in core inflation below 2.2% could shift the path toward earlier reductions, though such developments would need to materialize quickly to alter the current trajectory before the July meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
音量
$49,000終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus in the Fed decisions market through July heavily favors a steady policy rate across the next three meetings, with Pause–Pause–Pause carrying a 93% implied probability. This positioning stems from the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid inflation readings that remain above the 2% target and a labor market that continues to show resilience, reducing immediate pressure for cuts. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that officials will prioritize waiting for clearer disinflation signals rather than front-loading easing. A sharper-than-expected rise in unemployment or a sustained drop in core inflation below 2.2% could shift the path toward earlier reductions, though such developments would need to materialize quickly to alter the current trajectory before the July meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$49,000終了日
2026/07/29マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus in the Fed decisions market through July heavily favors a steady policy rate across the next three meetings, with Pause–Pause–Pause carrying a 93% implied probability. This positioning stems from the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid inflation readings that remain above the 2% target and a labor market that continues to show resilience, reducing immediate pressure for cuts. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment that officials will prioritize waiting for clearer disinflation signals rather than front-loading easing. A sharper-than-expected rise in unemployment or a sustained drop in core inflation below 2.2% could shift the path toward earlier reductions, though such developments would need to materialize quickly to alter the current trajectory before the July meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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