Recent August CPI and jobs data have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.96% on September 14, 2026, near multi-year highs and within striking distance of 5%, as markets price an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.6-4.1% and core measures above 3%, combined with solid labor market conditions and Middle East-driven oil price pressures, has shifted expectations toward higher-for-longer policy rates and an increased term premium. Heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits further supports yields. Key near-term catalysts include the Fed decision, subsequent inflation and employment releases, and any shifts in energy markets or growth forecasts through year-end 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$265,245 Vol.
2026/12/30
3.9％未満
12%
3.8％未満
9%
3.7％未満
6%
3.6%未満
5%
3.5％未満
5%
3.0%未満
1%
2.0%未満
2%
1.0％未満
2%
$265,245 Vol.
3.9％未満
$50,837 Vol.
12%
3.8％未満
$56,060 Vol.
9%
3.7％未満
$32,668 Vol.
6%
3.6%未満
$6,185 Vol.
5%
3.5％未満
$39,404 Vol.
5%
3.0%未満
$7,196 Vol.
1%
2.0%未満
$564 Vol.
2%
1.0％未満
$40,572 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent August CPI and jobs data have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.96% on September 14, 2026, near multi-year highs and within striking distance of 5%, as markets price an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.6-4.1% and core measures above 3%, combined with solid labor market conditions and Middle East-driven oil price pressures, has shifted expectations toward higher-for-longer policy rates and an increased term premium. Heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits further supports yields. Key near-term catalysts include the Fed decision, subsequent inflation and employment releases, and any shifts in energy markets or growth forecasts through year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
音量
$265,245終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent August CPI and jobs data have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.96% on September 14, 2026, near multi-year highs and within striking distance of 5%, as markets price an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.6-4.1% and core measures above 3%, combined with solid labor market conditions and Middle East-driven oil price pressures, has shifted expectations toward higher-for-longer policy rates and an increased term premium. Heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits further supports yields. Key near-term catalysts include the Fed decision, subsequent inflation and employment releases, and any shifts in energy markets or growth forecasts through year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
音量
$265,245終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent August CPI and jobs data have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.96% on September 14, 2026, near multi-year highs and within striking distance of 5%, as markets price an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Elevated inflation, with headline PCE near 3.6-4.1% and core measures above 3%, combined with solid labor market conditions and Middle East-driven oil price pressures, has shifted expectations toward higher-for-longer policy rates and an increased term premium. Heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits further supports yields. Key near-term catalysts include the Fed decision, subsequent inflation and employment releases, and any shifts in energy markets or growth forecasts through year-end 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問