Recent data show the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.45–4.55 percent amid mixed inflation readings and geopolitical tensions that have supported energy prices. Trader focus centers on the Federal Reserve’s policy path, with the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and subsequent labor-market and CPI releases likely to clarify whether cooling price pressures will permit further easing from the current federal-funds target range. Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance continue to embed a term premium that caps downside moves, while any sustained decline in core PCE toward 2 percent or weaker growth signals could compress yields further by year-end 2026. Market-implied odds reflect these crosscurrents, balancing the potential for additional rate cuts against sticky inflation and supply dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$216,394 Vol.
2026/12/31
3.9%
39%
3.8％
39%
3.7%
34%
3.6％
32%
3.5%
23%
3.0%
15%
2.0％
8%
1.0%
4%
$216,394 Vol.
3.9%
$40,917 Vol.
39%
3.8％
$39,816 Vol.
39%
3.7%
$26,462 Vol.
34%
3.6％
$4,900 Vol.
32%
3.5%
$31,781 Vol.
23%
3.0%
$724 Vol.
15%
2.0％
$373 Vol.
8%
1.0%
$39,661 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent data show the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.45–4.55 percent amid mixed inflation readings and geopolitical tensions that have supported energy prices. Trader focus centers on the Federal Reserve’s policy path, with the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and subsequent labor-market and CPI releases likely to clarify whether cooling price pressures will permit further easing from the current federal-funds target range. Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance continue to embed a term premium that caps downside moves, while any sustained decline in core PCE toward 2 percent or weaker growth signals could compress yields further by year-end 2026. Market-implied odds reflect these crosscurrents, balancing the potential for additional rate cuts against sticky inflation and supply dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
音量
$216,394終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent data show the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.45–4.55 percent amid mixed inflation readings and geopolitical tensions that have supported energy prices. Trader focus centers on the Federal Reserve’s policy path, with the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and subsequent labor-market and CPI releases likely to clarify whether cooling price pressures will permit further easing from the current federal-funds target range. Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance continue to embed a term premium that caps downside moves, while any sustained decline in core PCE toward 2 percent or weaker growth signals could compress yields further by year-end 2026. Market-implied odds reflect these crosscurrents, balancing the potential for additional rate cuts against sticky inflation and supply dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
音量
$216,394終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent data show the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.45–4.55 percent amid mixed inflation readings and geopolitical tensions that have supported energy prices. Trader focus centers on the Federal Reserve’s policy path, with the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and subsequent labor-market and CPI releases likely to clarify whether cooling price pressures will permit further easing from the current federal-funds target range. Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance continue to embed a term premium that caps downside moves, while any sustained decline in core PCE toward 2 percent or weaker growth signals could compress yields further by year-end 2026. Market-implied odds reflect these crosscurrents, balancing the potential for additional rate cuts against sticky inflation and supply dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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