The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.96% as of September 11, 2026, supported by August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year increase, with core CPI at 2.4% annually amid a 3.9% gasoline surge. Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1%) and strong August payrolls, has reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening. Markets price an 85% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance, with potential additional increases by year-end and no cuts until 2027. These dynamics, alongside elevated Treasury supply and firm growth, keep longer-term yields anchored at multi-year highs and limit downside before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$258,894 Vol.
2026/12/30
3.9％未満
14%
3.8％未満
10%
3.7％未満
8%
3.6%未満
5%
3.5％未満
6%
3.0%未満
4%
2.0%未満
2%
1.0％未満
2%
$258,894 Vol.
3.9％未満
$50,633 Vol.
14%
3.8％未満
$55,972 Vol.
10%
3.7％未満
$32,618 Vol.
8%
3.6%未満
$6,185 Vol.
5%
3.5％未満
$39,404 Vol.
6%
3.0%未満
$1,187 Vol.
4%
2.0%未満
$564 Vol.
2%
1.0％未満
$40,572 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.96% as of September 11, 2026, supported by August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year increase, with core CPI at 2.4% annually amid a 3.9% gasoline surge. Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1%) and strong August payrolls, has reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening. Markets price an 85% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance, with potential additional increases by year-end and no cuts until 2027. These dynamics, alongside elevated Treasury supply and firm growth, keep longer-term yields anchored at multi-year highs and limit downside before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
音量
$258,894終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.96% as of September 11, 2026, supported by August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year increase, with core CPI at 2.4% annually amid a 3.9% gasoline surge. Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1%) and strong August payrolls, has reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening. Markets price an 85% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance, with potential additional increases by year-end and no cuts until 2027. These dynamics, alongside elevated Treasury supply and firm growth, keep longer-term yields anchored at multi-year highs and limit downside before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
音量
$258,894終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.96% as of September 11, 2026, supported by August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year increase, with core CPI at 2.4% annually amid a 3.9% gasoline surge. Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1%) and strong August payrolls, has reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening. Markets price an 85% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance, with potential additional increases by year-end and no cuts until 2027. These dynamics, alongside elevated Treasury supply and firm growth, keep longer-term yields anchored at multi-year highs and limit downside before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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