Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, hotter-than-expected core CPI, and oil prices above $100 per barrel have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.96% as of September 11, 2026, its highest levels since 2023. Markets price roughly 70-90% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting amid resilient labor data and fiscal concerns, supporting a higher-for-longer policy path that limits near-term yield declines. Upcoming inflation releases and the central bank’s dot plot will shape expectations for the remainder of 2026, while any sustained easing in energy prices or growth slowdown could reopen room for lower yields.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$258,939 Vol.
2026/12/30
3.9％未満
14%
3.8％未満
10%
3.7％未満
7%
3.6%未満
5%
3.5％未満
6%
3.0%未満
4%
2.0%未満
2%
1.0％未満
2%
$258,939 Vol.
3.9％未満
$50,633 Vol.
14%
3.8％未満
$56,017 Vol.
10%
3.7％未満
$32,618 Vol.
7%
3.6%未満
$6,185 Vol.
5%
3.5％未満
$39,404 Vol.
6%
3.0%未満
$1,187 Vol.
4%
2.0%未満
$564 Vol.
2%
1.0％未満
$40,572 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, hotter-than-expected core CPI, and oil prices above $100 per barrel have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.96% as of September 11, 2026, its highest levels since 2023. Markets price roughly 70-90% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting amid resilient labor data and fiscal concerns, supporting a higher-for-longer policy path that limits near-term yield declines. Upcoming inflation releases and the central bank’s dot plot will shape expectations for the remainder of 2026, while any sustained easing in energy prices or growth slowdown could reopen room for lower yields.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
音量
$258,939終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, hotter-than-expected core CPI, and oil prices above $100 per barrel have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.96% as of September 11, 2026, its highest levels since 2023. Markets price roughly 70-90% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting amid resilient labor data and fiscal concerns, supporting a higher-for-longer policy path that limits near-term yield declines. Upcoming inflation releases and the central bank’s dot plot will shape expectations for the remainder of 2026, while any sustained easing in energy prices or growth slowdown could reopen room for lower yields.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
音量
$258,939終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, hotter-than-expected core CPI, and oil prices above $100 per barrel have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.96% as of September 11, 2026, its highest levels since 2023. Markets price roughly 70-90% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting amid resilient labor data and fiscal concerns, supporting a higher-for-longer policy path that limits near-term yield declines. Upcoming inflation releases and the central bank’s dot plot will shape expectations for the remainder of 2026, while any sustained easing in energy prices or growth slowdown could reopen room for lower yields.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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