Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic resilience and persistent inflation pressures underpin the 71% market-implied probability of a rate hike as the Fed’s next move. The June 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections showed a median dot plot signaling one 25-basis-point increase by year-end, with nine of 18 officials forecasting a higher federal funds rate above the current 3.50–3.75% target band. Recent labor-market data and inflation readings have reinforced trader views that the policy stance remains insufficiently restrictive, shifting consensus away from cuts. With the next FOMC meeting on July 29, 2026, traders are pricing in limited immediate action but elevated odds of a later hike once incoming CPI and employment figures clarify the trajectory. These odds reflect real-capital aggregation of monetary-policy expectations rather than certainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日利上げ
新規
新規
2028/12/31
利上げ
新規
新規
2028/12/31
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStronger-than-expected U.S. economic resilience and persistent inflation pressures underpin the 71% market-implied probability of a rate hike as the Fed’s next move. The June 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections showed a median dot plot signaling one 25-basis-point increase by year-end, with nine of 18 officials forecasting a higher federal funds rate above the current 3.50–3.75% target band. Recent labor-market data and inflation readings have reinforced trader views that the policy stance remains insufficiently restrictive, shifting consensus away from cuts. With the next FOMC meeting on July 29, 2026, traders are pricing in limited immediate action but elevated odds of a later hike once incoming CPI and employment figures clarify the trajectory. These odds reflect real-capital aggregation of monetary-policy expectations rather than certainty.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2028/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStronger-than-expected U.S. economic resilience and persistent inflation pressures underpin the 71% market-implied probability of a rate hike as the Fed’s next move. The June 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections showed a median dot plot signaling one 25-basis-point increase by year-end, with nine of 18 officials forecasting a higher federal funds rate above the current 3.50–3.75% target band. Recent labor-market data and inflation readings have reinforced trader views that the policy stance remains insufficiently restrictive, shifting consensus away from cuts. With the next FOMC meeting on July 29, 2026, traders are pricing in limited immediate action but elevated odds of a later hike once incoming CPI and employment figures clarify the trajectory. These odds reflect real-capital aggregation of monetary-policy expectations rather than certainty.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$0終了日
2028/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic resilience and persistent inflation pressures underpin the 71% market-implied probability of a rate hike as the Fed’s next move. The June 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections showed a median dot plot signaling one 25-basis-point increase by year-end, with nine of 18 officials forecasting a higher federal funds rate above the current 3.50–3.75% target band. Recent labor-market data and inflation readings have reinforced trader views that the policy stance remains insufficiently restrictive, shifting consensus away from cuts. With the next FOMC meeting on July 29, 2026, traders are pricing in limited immediate action but elevated odds of a later hike once incoming CPI and employment figures clarify the trajectory. These odds reflect real-capital aggregation of monetary-policy expectations rather than certainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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