**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% headline and 3.3% core amid lingering energy and supply pressures, alongside a stable labor market near 4.2% unemployment, underpins the closely matched probabilities across hike-pause sequences for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings.** New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June SEP’s upward revision to the 2026 median dot (now implying one hike) have elevated market-implied odds of tightening, yet recent data moderation and the absence of strong reacceleration keep pause scenarios competitive. Traders price roughly 40-64% odds of a September move depending on the latest releases, with the September 15-16 FOMC (including fresh projections) and incoming CPI/PCE prints as key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate-path consensus. This balanced distribution reflects genuine uncertainty in the data-dependent policy reaction function rather than consensus on any single sequence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日利上げ→据え置き→利上げ 26%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き 26%
連続利上げ 24%
据え置き–利上げ–据え置き 24%
新規
新規
2026/12/09
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ
26%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き
26%
連続利上げ
24%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き
13%
据え置き・据え置き・利上げ
13%
ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ
15%
ポーズ・利上げ・利上げ
14%
据え置き–利上げ–据え置き
24%
その他
13%
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ 26%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き 26%
連続利上げ 24%
据え置き–利上げ–据え置き 24%
新規
新規
2026/12/09
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ
$25 Vol.
26%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き
$25 Vol.
26%
連続利上げ
$25 Vol.
24%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き
$25 Vol.
13%
据え置き・据え置き・利上げ
$25 Vol.
13%
ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ
$25 Vol.
15%
ポーズ・利上げ・利上げ
$25 Vol.
14%
据え置き–利上げ–据え置き
$25 Vol.
24%
その他
$25 Vol.
13%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% headline and 3.3% core amid lingering energy and supply pressures, alongside a stable labor market near 4.2% unemployment, underpins the closely matched probabilities across hike-pause sequences for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings.** New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June SEP’s upward revision to the 2026 median dot (now implying one hike) have elevated market-implied odds of tightening, yet recent data moderation and the absence of strong reacceleration keep pause scenarios competitive. Traders price roughly 40-64% odds of a September move depending on the latest releases, with the September 15-16 FOMC (including fresh projections) and incoming CPI/PCE prints as key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate-path consensus. This balanced distribution reflects genuine uncertainty in the data-dependent policy reaction function rather than consensus on any single sequence.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
音量
$225終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% headline and 3.3% core amid lingering energy and supply pressures, alongside a stable labor market near 4.2% unemployment, underpins the closely matched probabilities across hike-pause sequences for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings.** New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June SEP’s upward revision to the 2026 median dot (now implying one hike) have elevated market-implied odds of tightening, yet recent data moderation and the absence of strong reacceleration keep pause scenarios competitive. Traders price roughly 40-64% odds of a September move depending on the latest releases, with the September 15-16 FOMC (including fresh projections) and incoming CPI/PCE prints as key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate-path consensus. This balanced distribution reflects genuine uncertainty in the data-dependent policy reaction function rather than consensus on any single sequence.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$225終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% headline and 3.3% core amid lingering energy and supply pressures, alongside a stable labor market near 4.2% unemployment, underpins the closely matched probabilities across hike-pause sequences for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings.** New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June SEP’s upward revision to the 2026 median dot (now implying one hike) have elevated market-implied odds of tightening, yet recent data moderation and the absence of strong reacceleration keep pause scenarios competitive. Traders price roughly 40-64% odds of a September move depending on the latest releases, with the September 15-16 FOMC (including fresh projections) and incoming CPI/PCE prints as key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate-path consensus. This balanced distribution reflects genuine uncertainty in the data-dependent policy reaction function rather than consensus on any single sequence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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