The elevated trader consensus favoring Trump completing his term through early 2027 stems from the lack of active congressional impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or confirmed health developments that would trigger resignation or succession under the 25th Amendment. As the elected incumbent, his administration has advanced policy priorities without the institutional crises or bipartisan defections that historically precede early exits. Midterm legislative dynamics and routine executive actions continue without signals of accelerated turnover, while base rates for presidential continuity in non-crisis periods remain high. Any shift would require verifiable developments such as formal charges with broad support or documented incapacity, none of which have materialized in recent months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
6% 確率
$10,674,220 Vol.
$10,674,220 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
6% 確率
$10,674,220 Vol.
$10,674,220 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The elevated trader consensus favoring Trump completing his term through early 2027 stems from the lack of active congressional impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or confirmed health developments that would trigger resignation or succession under the 25th Amendment. As the elected incumbent, his administration has advanced policy priorities without the institutional crises or bipartisan defections that historically precede early exits. Midterm legislative dynamics and routine executive actions continue without signals of accelerated turnover, while base rates for presidential continuity in non-crisis periods remain high. Any shift would require verifiable developments such as formal charges with broad support or documented incapacity, none of which have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
音量
$10,674,220終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The elevated trader consensus favoring Trump completing his term through early 2027 stems from the lack of active congressional impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or confirmed health developments that would trigger resignation or succession under the 25th Amendment. As the elected incumbent, his administration has advanced policy priorities without the institutional crises or bipartisan defections that historically precede early exits. Midterm legislative dynamics and routine executive actions continue without signals of accelerated turnover, while base rates for presidential continuity in non-crisis periods remain high. Any shift would require verifiable developments such as formal charges with broad support or documented incapacity, none of which have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$10,674,220終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The elevated trader consensus favoring Trump completing his term through early 2027 stems from the lack of active congressional impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or confirmed health developments that would trigger resignation or succession under the 25th Amendment. As the elected incumbent, his administration has advanced policy priorities without the institutional crises or bipartisan defections that historically precede early exits. Midterm legislative dynamics and routine executive actions continue without signals of accelerated turnover, while base rates for presidential continuity in non-crisis periods remain high. Any shift would require verifiable developments such as formal charges with broad support or documented incapacity, none of which have materialized in recent months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問