Trump's second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration, runs through January 2029 under the 22nd Amendment, creating a structural timeline that makes early departure unlikely absent extraordinary events. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects the absence of active impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or confirmed health crises that would trigger removal or incapacity under the 25th Amendment. Recent stability in congressional majorities and lack of sustained bipartisan pressure have reinforced this view, consistent with historical patterns where sitting presidents rarely exit office prematurely. Realistic factors that could still shift probabilities include sudden medical developments requiring transfer of power, major legal or scandal-related developments prompting resignation, or unforeseen congressional actions in the final months of 2026.