United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for securing the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections due to its status as the ruling party with extensive administrative resources, strong performance in recent regional contests, and consistent polling advantages of 40 percent or higher. The party is positioned to retain its constitutional majority through a mix of party-list and single-member district results, including in territories incorporated since 2022. New People has seen modest gains in some recent surveys from state-linked pollsters, placing it ahead of the CPRF and LDPR in select readings and supporting its second-place market odds as the most viable alternative within the managed system. Other registered parties face structural hurdles such as registration thresholds, regional pressure, and limited organizational reach that keep their implied probabilities low ahead of the multi-day vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日統一ロシア（ER） 70%
ニューピープル（NL） 20.3%
ロシア自由民主党（LDPR） 6.8%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF） 1.6%
$19,842,156 Vol.
$19,842,156 Vol.
2026/09/30
統一ロシア（ER）
70%
ニューピープル（NL）
20%
ロシア自由民主党（LDPR）
7%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF）
2%
ヤブロコ
<1%
公正ロシア・ための真実（SRZP）
<1%
ロジーナ
<1%
シビック・プラットフォーム（GP）
<1%
統一ロシア（ER） 70%
ニューピープル（NL） 20.3%
ロシア自由民主党（LDPR） 6.8%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF） 1.6%
$19,842,156 Vol.
$19,842,156 Vol.
2026/09/30
統一ロシア（ER）
$6,885,921 Vol.
70%
ニューピープル（NL）
$2,085,497 Vol.
20%
ロシア自由民主党（LDPR）
$3,196,188 Vol.
7%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF）
$1,318,885 Vol.
2%
ヤブロコ
$1,183,545 Vol.
<1%
公正ロシア・ための真実（SRZP）
$1,519,406 Vol.
<1%
ロジーナ
$2,377,651 Vol.
<1%
シビック・プラットフォーム（GP）
$1,275,063 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: Per market rules, the market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the listed party “compared to [the number of seats they held] before the election,” specifically meaning the party’s seat count in the outgoing State Duma as of 12:00 PM Moscow time on the calendar day immediately preceding the official scheduled date of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election, as determined by a consensus of credible reporting; if there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on Russian government sources such as the State Duma or its official media outlets (e.g., https://dumatv.ru/fractions).United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for securing the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections due to its status as the ruling party with extensive administrative resources, strong performance in recent regional contests, and consistent polling advantages of 40 percent or higher. The party is positioned to retain its constitutional majority through a mix of party-list and single-member district results, including in territories incorporated since 2022. New People has seen modest gains in some recent surveys from state-linked pollsters, placing it ahead of the CPRF and LDPR in select readings and supporting its second-place market odds as the most viable alternative within the managed system. Other registered parties face structural hurdles such as registration thresholds, regional pressure, and limited organizational reach that keep their implied probabilities low ahead of the multi-day vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
マーケット開始日： Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
音量
$19,842,156終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: Per market rules, the market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the listed party “compared to [the number of seats they held] before the election,” specifically meaning the party’s seat count in the outgoing State Duma as of 12:00 PM Moscow time on the calendar day immediately preceding the official scheduled date of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election, as determined by a consensus of credible reporting; if there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on Russian government sources such as the State Duma or its official media outlets (e.g., https://dumatv.ru/fractions).United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for securing the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections due to its status as the ruling party with extensive administrative resources, strong performance in recent regional contests, and consistent polling advantages of 40 percent or higher. The party is positioned to retain its constitutional majority through a mix of party-list and single-member district results, including in territories incorporated since 2022. New People has seen modest gains in some recent surveys from state-linked pollsters, placing it ahead of the CPRF and LDPR in select readings and supporting its second-place market odds as the most viable alternative within the managed system. Other registered parties face structural hurdles such as registration thresholds, regional pressure, and limited organizational reach that keep their implied probabilities low ahead of the multi-day vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
音量
$19,842,156終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for securing the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections due to its status as the ruling party with extensive administrative resources, strong performance in recent regional contests, and consistent polling advantages of 40 percent or higher. The party is positioned to retain its constitutional majority through a mix of party-list and single-member district results, including in territories incorporated since 2022. New People has seen modest gains in some recent surveys from state-linked pollsters, placing it ahead of the CPRF and LDPR in select readings and supporting its second-place market odds as the most viable alternative within the managed system. Other registered parties face structural hurdles such as registration thresholds, regional pressure, and limited organizational reach that keep their implied probabilities low ahead of the multi-day vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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