Chang San-cheng, the incumbent Kuomintang mayor of Taoyuan, holds an 88.5% implied probability in the market as traders price in his strong position ahead of Taiwan’s November 28, 2026 local elections. Recent polling from March 2026 showed him leading potential Democratic Progressive Party challengers by 5–7 points, while the DPP’s April nomination of Huang Shih-chieh as its candidate has not shifted sentiment. KMT organizational strength in special municipalities, Chang’s incumbency advantage, and the party’s July 2026 candidate rally have reinforced expectations of limited vote splitting. Huang’s low 2.1% price reflects the absence of major late developments that could narrow the gap, with other listed names trading at neutral levels consistent with minimal independent support.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日張善政 89%
黄士杰 2.1%
彭紹瑾 <1%
新規
新規
2027/06/30
張善政
89%
黄士杰
2%
彭紹瑾
<1%
張善政 89%
黄士杰 2.1%
彭紹瑾 <1%
新規
新規
2027/06/30
張善政
$2,769 Vol.
89%
黄士杰
$1,374 Vol.
2%
彭紹瑾
$1,176 Vol.
<1%
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taoyuan as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chang San-cheng, the incumbent Kuomintang mayor of Taoyuan, holds an 88.5% implied probability in the market as traders price in his strong position ahead of Taiwan’s November 28, 2026 local elections. Recent polling from March 2026 showed him leading potential Democratic Progressive Party challengers by 5–7 points, while the DPP’s April nomination of Huang Shih-chieh as its candidate has not shifted sentiment. KMT organizational strength in special municipalities, Chang’s incumbency advantage, and the party’s July 2026 candidate rally have reinforced expectations of limited vote splitting. Huang’s low 2.1% price reflects the absence of major late developments that could narrow the gap, with other listed names trading at neutral levels consistent with minimal independent support.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taoyuan as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taoyuan as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 8:37 AM ET
音量
$5,319終了日
2026/11/28マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 8:37 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taoyuan as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chang San-cheng, the incumbent Kuomintang mayor of Taoyuan, holds an 88.5% implied probability in the market as traders price in his strong position ahead of Taiwan’s November 28, 2026 local elections. Recent polling from March 2026 showed him leading potential Democratic Progressive Party challengers by 5–7 points, while the DPP’s April nomination of Huang Shih-chieh as its candidate has not shifted sentiment. KMT organizational strength in special municipalities, Chang’s incumbency advantage, and the party’s July 2026 candidate rally have reinforced expectations of limited vote splitting. Huang’s low 2.1% price reflects the absence of major late developments that could narrow the gap, with other listed names trading at neutral levels consistent with minimal independent support.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taoyuan as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taoyuan as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
音量
$5,319終了日
2026/11/28マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 8:37 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Chang San-cheng, the incumbent Kuomintang mayor of Taoyuan, holds an 88.5% implied probability in the market as traders price in his strong position ahead of Taiwan’s November 28, 2026 local elections. Recent polling from March 2026 showed him leading potential Democratic Progressive Party challengers by 5–7 points, while the DPP’s April nomination of Huang Shih-chieh as its candidate has not shifted sentiment. KMT organizational strength in special municipalities, Chang’s incumbency advantage, and the party’s July 2026 candidate rally have reinforced expectations of limited vote splitting. Huang’s low 2.1% price reflects the absence of major late developments that could narrow the gap, with other listed names trading at neutral levels consistent with minimal independent support.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問