Javier Milei’s incumbency and record of fiscal austerity, currency liberalization, and congressional gains from the 2025 midterms underpin his 51.5% trader-implied probability, even as approval ratings have slipped into the mid-30s amid persistent inflation, wage pressures, and corruption allegations. Axel Kicillof’s 40% pricing reflects Peronist efforts to consolidate behind the Buenos Aires governor as the primary challenger, with recent surveys showing him competitive or tied in head-to-head matchups. Fragmented opposition support for figures such as Sergio Massa limits further consolidation, while rising undecided voters and third-way interest introduce uncertainty ahead of the 2027 vote. Recent polling trends and alliance-building moves have narrowed Milei’s edge without displacing him as the consensus leader.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ハビエル・ミレイ 52%
アクセル・キシロフ 40%
セルヒオ・マッサ 5.0%
ミリアム・ブレグマン 1.5%
$524,776 Vol.
$524,776 Vol.
ハビエル・ミレイ
52%
アクセル・キシロフ
40%
セルヒオ・マッサ
5%
ミリアム・ブレグマン
1%
ダンテ・ヘベル
1%
フアン・グラボイス
1%
ビクトリア・ビリャルエル
1%
マウリシオ・マクリ
<1%
エステバン・ブルリッチ
<1%
ファクンド・マネス
<1%
フアン・スキアレッティ
<1%
ハビエル・ミレイ 52%
アクセル・キシロフ 40%
セルヒオ・マッサ 5.0%
ミリアム・ブレグマン 1.5%
$524,776 Vol.
$524,776 Vol.
ハビエル・ミレイ
52%
アクセル・キシロフ
40%
セルヒオ・マッサ
5%
ミリアム・ブレグマン
1%
ダンテ・ヘベル
1%
フアン・グラボイス
1%
ビクトリア・ビリャルエル
1%
マウリシオ・マクリ
<1%
エステバン・ブルリッチ
<1%
ファクンド・マネス
<1%
フアン・スキアレッティ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
マーケット開始日： May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Javier Milei’s incumbency and record of fiscal austerity, currency liberalization, and congressional gains from the 2025 midterms underpin his 51.5% trader-implied probability, even as approval ratings have slipped into the mid-30s amid persistent inflation, wage pressures, and corruption allegations. Axel Kicillof’s 40% pricing reflects Peronist efforts to consolidate behind the Buenos Aires governor as the primary challenger, with recent surveys showing him competitive or tied in head-to-head matchups. Fragmented opposition support for figures such as Sergio Massa limits further consolidation, while rising undecided voters and third-way interest introduce uncertainty ahead of the 2027 vote. Recent polling trends and alliance-building moves have narrowed Milei’s edge without displacing him as the consensus leader.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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