Trader sentiment in the "Who will be arrested before 2027" market centers on high-profile former U.S. intelligence and political figures amid active Department of Justice reviews of prior investigations. John Brennan leads implied probabilities, followed closely by Mahmoud Khalil and others such as Letitia James and James Clapper, reflecting trader focus on potential federal charges tied to past official actions. Recent surges in overall enforcement activity, including record ICE operations through mid-2026, provide broader context for expectations of continued scrutiny, though no confirmed arrests of the leading named individuals have occurred in the past 30 days. Scheduled congressional oversight and any new indictments before year-end could shift probabilities, as the market resolves on formal arrests prior to January 1, 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$361,848 Vol.
アンソニー・ファウチ
12%
ジョン・ブレナン
29%
ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロ
23%
アダム・シフ
3%
バラク・オバマ
1%
ジェームズ・コミー
6%
マフムード・カリール
26%
ジェームズ・クラッパー
13%
レティティア・ジェームズ
13%
ヒラリー・クリントン
3%
ビル・クリントン
3%
ロレッタ・リンチ
10%
スーザン・ライス
8%
キャンディス・オーウェンズ
6%
ギャビン・ニューサム
3%
ベンヤミン・ネタニヤフ
5%
ジョン・ケリー
3%
パム・ボンディ
4%
トム・ホーマン
11%
カッシュ・パテル
3%
ブランドン・ジョンソン
12%
リサ・クック
10%
イ・ジュンソク
11%
ジョー・バイデン
2%
$361,848 Vol.
アンソニー・ファウチ
$132,427 Vol.
12%
ジョン・ブレナン
$18,168 Vol.
29%
ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロ
$21,677 Vol.
23%
アダム・シフ
$16,394 Vol.
3%
バラク・オバマ
$28,805 Vol.
1%
ジェームズ・コミー
$9,602 Vol.
6%
マフムード・カリール
$1,278 Vol.
26%
ジェームズ・クラッパー
$6,726 Vol.
13%
レティティア・ジェームズ
$2,821 Vol.
13%
ヒラリー・クリントン
$25,009 Vol.
3%
ビル・クリントン
$2,008 Vol.
3%
ロレッタ・リンチ
$2,376 Vol.
10%
スーザン・ライス
$304 Vol.
8%
キャンディス・オーウェンズ
$263 Vol.
6%
ギャビン・ニューサム
$37,157 Vol.
3%
ベンヤミン・ネタニヤフ
$1,789 Vol.
5%
ジョン・ケリー
$346 Vol.
3%
パム・ボンディ
$1,998 Vol.
4%
トム・ホーマン
$39,428 Vol.
11%
カッシュ・パテル
$530 Vol.
3%
ブランドン・ジョンソン
$3,191 Vol.
12%
リサ・クック
$3,218 Vol.
10%
イ・ジュンソク
$794 Vol.
11%
ジョー・バイデン
$5,538 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in the "Who will be arrested before 2027" market centers on high-profile former U.S. intelligence and political figures amid active Department of Justice reviews of prior investigations. John Brennan leads implied probabilities, followed closely by Mahmoud Khalil and others such as Letitia James and James Clapper, reflecting trader focus on potential federal charges tied to past official actions. Recent surges in overall enforcement activity, including record ICE operations through mid-2026, provide broader context for expectations of continued scrutiny, though no confirmed arrests of the leading named individuals have occurred in the past 30 days. Scheduled congressional oversight and any new indictments before year-end could shift probabilities, as the market resolves on formal arrests prior to January 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
音量
$361,848マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in the "Who will be arrested before 2027" market centers on high-profile former U.S. intelligence and political figures amid active Department of Justice reviews of prior investigations. John Brennan leads implied probabilities, followed closely by Mahmoud Khalil and others such as Letitia James and James Clapper, reflecting trader focus on potential federal charges tied to past official actions. Recent surges in overall enforcement activity, including record ICE operations through mid-2026, provide broader context for expectations of continued scrutiny, though no confirmed arrests of the leading named individuals have occurred in the past 30 days. Scheduled congressional oversight and any new indictments before year-end could shift probabilities, as the market resolves on formal arrests prior to January 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$361,848マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment in the "Who will be arrested before 2027" market centers on high-profile former U.S. intelligence and political figures amid active Department of Justice reviews of prior investigations. John Brennan leads implied probabilities, followed closely by Mahmoud Khalil and others such as Letitia James and James Clapper, reflecting trader focus on potential federal charges tied to past official actions. Recent surges in overall enforcement activity, including record ICE operations through mid-2026, provide broader context for expectations of continued scrutiny, though no confirmed arrests of the leading named individuals have occurred in the past 30 days. Scheduled congressional oversight and any new indictments before year-end could shift probabilities, as the market resolves on formal arrests prior to January 1, 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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