Recent indictments charging former FBI Director James Comey with threatening the president and transmitting threats in interstate commerce, tied to a 2025 social media post, have not shifted trader consensus against a 2026 prison sentence. Legal analysts highlight the "true threats" standard under Supreme Court precedent, defense motions to dismiss on selective prosecution and evidentiary grounds, and the prior 2025 case's dismissal without prejudice as barriers to swift conviction. Trial scheduling into late 2026, combined with appeals processes and the high bar for proving willful intent in such communications, underpins the 97.7% implied probability on "No." A guilty verdict followed by immediate sentencing before year-end remains the primary scenario that could alter this outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
2% 確率
$156,724 Vol.
$156,724 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
2% 確率
$156,724 Vol.
$156,724 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former FBI director James Comey is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent indictments charging former FBI Director James Comey with threatening the president and transmitting threats in interstate commerce, tied to a 2025 social media post, have not shifted trader consensus against a 2026 prison sentence. Legal analysts highlight the "true threats" standard under Supreme Court precedent, defense motions to dismiss on selective prosecution and evidentiary grounds, and the prior 2025 case's dismissal without prejudice as barriers to swift conviction. Trial scheduling into late 2026, combined with appeals processes and the high bar for proving willful intent in such communications, underpins the 97.7% implied probability on "No." A guilty verdict followed by immediate sentencing before year-end remains the primary scenario that could alter this outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former FBI director James Comey is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 28, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
音量
$156,724終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 2:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if former FBI director James Comey is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent indictments charging former FBI Director James Comey with threatening the president and transmitting threats in interstate commerce, tied to a 2025 social media post, have not shifted trader consensus against a 2026 prison sentence. Legal analysts highlight the "true threats" standard under Supreme Court precedent, defense motions to dismiss on selective prosecution and evidentiary grounds, and the prior 2025 case's dismissal without prejudice as barriers to swift conviction. Trial scheduling into late 2026, combined with appeals processes and the high bar for proving willful intent in such communications, underpins the 97.7% implied probability on "No." A guilty verdict followed by immediate sentencing before year-end remains the primary scenario that could alter this outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former FBI director James Comey is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Comey is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against James Comey for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$156,724終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 2:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent indictments charging former FBI Director James Comey with threatening the president and transmitting threats in interstate commerce, tied to a 2025 social media post, have not shifted trader consensus against a 2026 prison sentence. Legal analysts highlight the "true threats" standard under Supreme Court precedent, defense motions to dismiss on selective prosecution and evidentiary grounds, and the prior 2025 case's dismissal without prejudice as barriers to swift conviction. Trial scheduling into late 2026, combined with appeals processes and the high bar for proving willful intent in such communications, underpins the 97.7% implied probability on "No." A guilty verdict followed by immediate sentencing before year-end remains the primary scenario that could alter this outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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