Recent U.S.-brokered diplomacy produced a temporary three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 that included a large prisoner exchange, yet both sides reported violations through drone strikes and artillery while Russia used the pause to rotate forces and reinforce positions along the front. Moscow continues to condition any durable halt on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other claimed territories, a demand that has stalled broader Geneva talks over security guarantees and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. President Trump has signaled interest in extending the pause, while Russian officials have floated direct negotiations if those territorial preconditions are met. Traders weigh these competing signals against the four-year pattern of brief pauses followed by resumed operations, focusing on whether upcoming diplomatic rounds or battlefield shifts could produce verifiable monitoring mechanisms before any agreed deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$484,058 Vol.
2026/12/31
5月31日
2%
6月30日
12%
10月31日
37%
12月31日
48%
$484,058 Vol.
5月31日
$176,447 Vol.
2%
6月30日
$175,944 Vol.
12%
10月31日
$45,086 Vol.
37%
12月31日
$87,283 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-brokered diplomacy produced a temporary three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 that included a large prisoner exchange, yet both sides reported violations through drone strikes and artillery while Russia used the pause to rotate forces and reinforce positions along the front. Moscow continues to condition any durable halt on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other claimed territories, a demand that has stalled broader Geneva talks over security guarantees and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. President Trump has signaled interest in extending the pause, while Russian officials have floated direct negotiations if those territorial preconditions are met. Traders weigh these competing signals against the four-year pattern of brief pauses followed by resumed operations, focusing on whether upcoming diplomatic rounds or battlefield shifts could produce verifiable monitoring mechanisms before any agreed deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
音量
$484,058終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-brokered diplomacy produced a temporary three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 that included a large prisoner exchange, yet both sides reported violations through drone strikes and artillery while Russia used the pause to rotate forces and reinforce positions along the front. Moscow continues to condition any durable halt on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other claimed territories, a demand that has stalled broader Geneva talks over security guarantees and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. President Trump has signaled interest in extending the pause, while Russian officials have floated direct negotiations if those territorial preconditions are met. Traders weigh these competing signals against the four-year pattern of brief pauses followed by resumed operations, focusing on whether upcoming diplomatic rounds or battlefield shifts could produce verifiable monitoring mechanisms before any agreed deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$484,058終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-brokered diplomacy produced a temporary three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 that included a large prisoner exchange, yet both sides reported violations through drone strikes and artillery while Russia used the pause to rotate forces and reinforce positions along the front. Moscow continues to condition any durable halt on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other claimed territories, a demand that has stalled broader Geneva talks over security guarantees and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. President Trump has signaled interest in extending the pause, while Russian officials have floated direct negotiations if those territorial preconditions are met. Traders weigh these competing signals against the four-year pattern of brief pauses followed by resumed operations, focusing on whether upcoming diplomatic rounds or battlefield shifts could produce verifiable monitoring mechanisms before any agreed deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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