Ongoing U.S.-mediated diplomacy has produced limited progress toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, with core disputes persisting over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, security guarantees, and ceasefire monitoring mechanisms. Ukraine recently conveyed fresh proposals to American officials, while U.S. envoys prepare additional visits amid Russia's upcoming parliamentary elections, which Kyiv anticipates could prompt further mobilization. Formal talks have not resumed since February 2026, following an earlier three-day U.S.-brokered pause in May that ended amid mutual violations and accusations. Both sides continue military operations, with Ukrainian forces reporting localized gains and Russia maintaining maximalist positions on its stated objectives. These entrenched barriers and absence of substantive breakthroughs sustain trader views of low near-term prospects for a formal, mutually agreed halt.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$5,895,731 Vol.
2026/10/31
10月31日
11%
8月31日
2%
12月31日
26%
$5,895,731 Vol.
10月31日
$846,185 Vol.
11%
8月31日
$374,997 Vol.
2%
12月31日
$2,137,218 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-mediated diplomacy has produced limited progress toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, with core disputes persisting over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, security guarantees, and ceasefire monitoring mechanisms. Ukraine recently conveyed fresh proposals to American officials, while U.S. envoys prepare additional visits amid Russia's upcoming parliamentary elections, which Kyiv anticipates could prompt further mobilization. Formal talks have not resumed since February 2026, following an earlier three-day U.S.-brokered pause in May that ended amid mutual violations and accusations. Both sides continue military operations, with Ukrainian forces reporting localized gains and Russia maintaining maximalist positions on its stated objectives. These entrenched barriers and absence of substantive breakthroughs sustain trader views of low near-term prospects for a formal, mutually agreed halt.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
音量
$5,895,731終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-mediated diplomacy has produced limited progress toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, with core disputes persisting over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, security guarantees, and ceasefire monitoring mechanisms. Ukraine recently conveyed fresh proposals to American officials, while U.S. envoys prepare additional visits amid Russia's upcoming parliamentary elections, which Kyiv anticipates could prompt further mobilization. Formal talks have not resumed since February 2026, following an earlier three-day U.S.-brokered pause in May that ended amid mutual violations and accusations. Both sides continue military operations, with Ukrainian forces reporting localized gains and Russia maintaining maximalist positions on its stated objectives. These entrenched barriers and absence of substantive breakthroughs sustain trader views of low near-term prospects for a formal, mutually agreed halt.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$5,895,731終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-mediated diplomacy has produced limited progress toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, with core disputes persisting over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, security guarantees, and ceasefire monitoring mechanisms. Ukraine recently conveyed fresh proposals to American officials, while U.S. envoys prepare additional visits amid Russia's upcoming parliamentary elections, which Kyiv anticipates could prompt further mobilization. Formal talks have not resumed since February 2026, following an earlier three-day U.S.-brokered pause in May that ended amid mutual violations and accusations. Both sides continue military operations, with Ukrainian forces reporting localized gains and Russia maintaining maximalist positions on its stated objectives. These entrenched barriers and absence of substantive breakthroughs sustain trader views of low near-term prospects for a formal, mutually agreed halt.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問