Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and neutrality commitments have kept direct Ukraine-Russia negotiations stalled despite U.S.-mediated rounds in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026. Recent statements from both sides, including Vladimir Putin's June readiness for talks based on prior frameworks and Volodymyr Zelenskyy's open letter proposing direct dialogue, produced no breakthroughs or ceasefires, while battlefield activity continued without de-escalation. With only weeks remaining before the August 31 deadline, traders view the compressed timeline and entrenched positions as prohibitive barriers to a signed agreement. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden bilateral concessions, an unexpected high-level summit yielding terms, or rapid external pressure altering incentives before the cutoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$231,999 Vol.
$231,999 Vol.
2026/08/31
はい
3% 確率
$231,999 Vol.
$231,999 Vol.
2026/08/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and neutrality commitments have kept direct Ukraine-Russia negotiations stalled despite U.S.-mediated rounds in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026. Recent statements from both sides, including Vladimir Putin's June readiness for talks based on prior frameworks and Volodymyr Zelenskyy's open letter proposing direct dialogue, produced no breakthroughs or ceasefires, while battlefield activity continued without de-escalation. With only weeks remaining before the August 31 deadline, traders view the compressed timeline and entrenched positions as prohibitive barriers to a signed agreement. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden bilateral concessions, an unexpected high-level summit yielding terms, or rapid external pressure altering incentives before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
音量
$231,999終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and neutrality commitments have kept direct Ukraine-Russia negotiations stalled despite U.S.-mediated rounds in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026. Recent statements from both sides, including Vladimir Putin's June readiness for talks based on prior frameworks and Volodymyr Zelenskyy's open letter proposing direct dialogue, produced no breakthroughs or ceasefires, while battlefield activity continued without de-escalation. With only weeks remaining before the August 31 deadline, traders view the compressed timeline and entrenched positions as prohibitive barriers to a signed agreement. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden bilateral concessions, an unexpected high-level summit yielding terms, or rapid external pressure altering incentives before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$231,999終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and neutrality commitments have kept direct Ukraine-Russia negotiations stalled despite U.S.-mediated rounds in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026. Recent statements from both sides, including Vladimir Putin's June readiness for talks based on prior frameworks and Volodymyr Zelenskyy's open letter proposing direct dialogue, produced no breakthroughs or ceasefires, while battlefield activity continued without de-escalation. With only weeks remaining before the August 31 deadline, traders view the compressed timeline and entrenched positions as prohibitive barriers to a signed agreement. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden bilateral concessions, an unexpected high-level summit yielding terms, or rapid external pressure altering incentives before the cutoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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