Russia’s repeated rejection of compromise terms continues to anchor trader expectations against a signed peace agreement before 2027. Kremlin officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, have stated in recent weeks that Moscow will only accept a settlement meeting its maximalist demands for full control of the Donbas and a durable arrangement on its terms, rather than a frontline freeze. Formal trilateral talks last occurred in February 2026 and have not resumed amid U.S. focus elsewhere, while short-lived ceasefires and Ukrainian proposals for leader-level meetings were dismissed. Ukraine maintains its openness to negotiations with security guarantees but rejects ceding remaining Donbas territory, leaving core gaps unbridged ahead of Russia’s September parliamentary elections. These dynamics sustain the market’s strong consensus against near-term resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
16% 確率
$2,578,229 Vol.
$2,578,229 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
16% 確率
$2,578,229 Vol.
$2,578,229 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Russia’s repeated rejection of compromise terms continues to anchor trader expectations against a signed peace agreement before 2027. Kremlin officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, have stated in recent weeks that Moscow will only accept a settlement meeting its maximalist demands for full control of the Donbas and a durable arrangement on its terms, rather than a frontline freeze. Formal trilateral talks last occurred in February 2026 and have not resumed amid U.S. focus elsewhere, while short-lived ceasefires and Ukrainian proposals for leader-level meetings were dismissed. Ukraine maintains its openness to negotiations with security guarantees but rejects ceding remaining Donbas territory, leaving core gaps unbridged ahead of Russia’s September parliamentary elections. These dynamics sustain the market’s strong consensus against near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
音量
$2,578,229終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Russia’s repeated rejection of compromise terms continues to anchor trader expectations against a signed peace agreement before 2027. Kremlin officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, have stated in recent weeks that Moscow will only accept a settlement meeting its maximalist demands for full control of the Donbas and a durable arrangement on its terms, rather than a frontline freeze. Formal trilateral talks last occurred in February 2026 and have not resumed amid U.S. focus elsewhere, while short-lived ceasefires and Ukrainian proposals for leader-level meetings were dismissed. Ukraine maintains its openness to negotiations with security guarantees but rejects ceding remaining Donbas territory, leaving core gaps unbridged ahead of Russia’s September parliamentary elections. These dynamics sustain the market’s strong consensus against near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,578,229終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s repeated rejection of compromise terms continues to anchor trader expectations against a signed peace agreement before 2027. Kremlin officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, have stated in recent weeks that Moscow will only accept a settlement meeting its maximalist demands for full control of the Donbas and a durable arrangement on its terms, rather than a frontline freeze. Formal trilateral talks last occurred in February 2026 and have not resumed amid U.S. focus elsewhere, while short-lived ceasefires and Ukrainian proposals for leader-level meetings were dismissed. Ukraine maintains its openness to negotiations with security guarantees but rejects ceding remaining Donbas territory, leaving core gaps unbridged ahead of Russia’s September parliamentary elections. These dynamics sustain the market’s strong consensus against near-term resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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