Ongoing battlefield operations and stalled negotiations drive the 83.5% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Formal talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026 produced no breakthroughs on territorial concessions or security guarantees, and the Kremlin stated in July there are no immediate prospects for resumption. Recent months have featured intensified mutual strikes, including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian targets and Russian missile barrages on Ukrainian cities, with both sides holding firm on core positions. Limited ceasefires, such as the April 2026 Easter pause, remained temporary and did not lead to broader diplomacy. These factors reflect entrenched military realities and divergent demands that make a comprehensive agreement unlikely within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
17% 確率
$2,557,156 Vol.
$2,557,156 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
17% 確率
$2,557,156 Vol.
$2,557,156 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing battlefield operations and stalled negotiations drive the 83.5% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Formal talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026 produced no breakthroughs on territorial concessions or security guarantees, and the Kremlin stated in July there are no immediate prospects for resumption. Recent months have featured intensified mutual strikes, including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian targets and Russian missile barrages on Ukrainian cities, with both sides holding firm on core positions. Limited ceasefires, such as the April 2026 Easter pause, remained temporary and did not lead to broader diplomacy. These factors reflect entrenched military realities and divergent demands that make a comprehensive agreement unlikely within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
音量
$2,557,156終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing battlefield operations and stalled negotiations drive the 83.5% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Formal talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026 produced no breakthroughs on territorial concessions or security guarantees, and the Kremlin stated in July there are no immediate prospects for resumption. Recent months have featured intensified mutual strikes, including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian targets and Russian missile barrages on Ukrainian cities, with both sides holding firm on core positions. Limited ceasefires, such as the April 2026 Easter pause, remained temporary and did not lead to broader diplomacy. These factors reflect entrenched military realities and divergent demands that make a comprehensive agreement unlikely within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,557,156終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing battlefield operations and stalled negotiations drive the 83.5% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Formal talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026 produced no breakthroughs on territorial concessions or security guarantees, and the Kremlin stated in July there are no immediate prospects for resumption. Recent months have featured intensified mutual strikes, including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian targets and Russian missile barrages on Ukrainian cities, with both sides holding firm on core positions. Limited ceasefires, such as the April 2026 Easter pause, remained temporary and did not lead to broader diplomacy. These factors reflect entrenched military realities and divergent demands that make a comprehensive agreement unlikely within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問