Ukraine’s firm rejection of territorial concessions in Donbas remains the dominant factor behind traders’ 96.3% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to cede the remaining areas before 2027. Recent trilateral talks in early 2026 collapsed over Russia’s core demand for recognition of its claims in Donetsk and Luhansk, and September statements from the Kremlin and Ukrainian officials confirm no progress since the Geneva round. President Zelenskyy has reiterated openness to a ceasefire along current lines paired with security guarantees but has treated any unilateral handover as a red line, consistent with Ukraine’s counteroffensives reclaiming ground in northern Donetsk. Upcoming US-mediated discussions, including the planned Trump-Zelenskyy meeting and potential October talks, could alter trajectories only if they produce enforceable guarantees that address Kyiv’s sovereignty concerns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$150,433 Vol.
$150,433 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
$150,433 Vol.
$150,433 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine’s firm rejection of territorial concessions in Donbas remains the dominant factor behind traders’ 96.3% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to cede the remaining areas before 2027. Recent trilateral talks in early 2026 collapsed over Russia’s core demand for recognition of its claims in Donetsk and Luhansk, and September statements from the Kremlin and Ukrainian officials confirm no progress since the Geneva round. President Zelenskyy has reiterated openness to a ceasefire along current lines paired with security guarantees but has treated any unilateral handover as a red line, consistent with Ukraine’s counteroffensives reclaiming ground in northern Donetsk. Upcoming US-mediated discussions, including the planned Trump-Zelenskyy meeting and potential October talks, could alter trajectories only if they produce enforceable guarantees that address Kyiv’s sovereignty concerns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ET
音量
$150,433終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine’s firm rejection of territorial concessions in Donbas remains the dominant factor behind traders’ 96.3% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to cede the remaining areas before 2027. Recent trilateral talks in early 2026 collapsed over Russia’s core demand for recognition of its claims in Donetsk and Luhansk, and September statements from the Kremlin and Ukrainian officials confirm no progress since the Geneva round. President Zelenskyy has reiterated openness to a ceasefire along current lines paired with security guarantees but has treated any unilateral handover as a red line, consistent with Ukraine’s counteroffensives reclaiming ground in northern Donetsk. Upcoming US-mediated discussions, including the planned Trump-Zelenskyy meeting and potential October talks, could alter trajectories only if they produce enforceable guarantees that address Kyiv’s sovereignty concerns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$150,433終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s firm rejection of territorial concessions in Donbas remains the dominant factor behind traders’ 96.3% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to cede the remaining areas before 2027. Recent trilateral talks in early 2026 collapsed over Russia’s core demand for recognition of its claims in Donetsk and Luhansk, and September statements from the Kremlin and Ukrainian officials confirm no progress since the Geneva round. President Zelenskyy has reiterated openness to a ceasefire along current lines paired with security guarantees but has treated any unilateral handover as a red line, consistent with Ukraine’s counteroffensives reclaiming ground in northern Donetsk. Upcoming US-mediated discussions, including the planned Trump-Zelenskyy meeting and potential October talks, could alter trajectories only if they produce enforceable guarantees that address Kyiv’s sovereignty concerns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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