Recent US diplomatic pushes for trilateral technical talks in the UAE have revived interest in renewed Russia-Ukraine negotiations, yet Russian officials continue to condition any direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting on Ukrainian concessions and insist Moscow or aligned venues as prerequisites, while Kyiv rejects such terms and favors neutral sites. Ongoing strikes, retaliatory actions, and unresolved territorial issues sustain uncertainty, with no leader-level summit confirmed since earlier stalled rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. This dynamic supports the market's close split between no meeting by late 2027 and Belarus as the leading location, reflecting persistent procedural hurdles and the wisdom of crowds pricing in delays or Russia-favored outcomes over neutral or Western European options. Scheduled G20 and follow-up US-Russia contacts could shift probabilities if they produce concrete progress.