Persistent territorial disagreements and lack of trust between Russia and Ukraine continue to block any direct bilateral summit between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, underpinning the 68% market probability of no leader-level meeting by December 31, 2027. Recent US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi produced only a large prisoner exchange and limited progress on security guarantees, while Putin reiterated demands for control over annexed regions and rejected foreign peacekeepers or neutral venues. Moscow has invited Zelenskyy to Russia but opposes third-country sites, and ongoing diplomacy focuses on mediated formats that may include European participants rather than a bilateral encounter. Upcoming US-Russia discussions at the APEC summit in China could shape next steps, though core differences on land and post-conflict architecture remain unresolved.