Putin’s consolidated control over Russia’s security services, military command, and United Russia party continues to underpin trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur in 2026. Reports from March–May 2026 of tightened Kremlin security measures and unnamed European intelligence concerns over possible plots involving figures like Sergei Shoigu generated brief speculation, yet these have not produced verifiable actions or elite defections. Putin’s high approval ratings, ongoing suppression of opposition, and steady management of the Ukraine war have sustained regime stability through mid-August. While war-related economic strains and elite rivalries remain long-term risks, the absence of recent escalatory developments or institutional fractures supports the market’s strong consensus against a 2026 attempt.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7% 確率
$118,354 Vol.
$118,354 Vol.
2026/12/31
7% 確率
$118,354 Vol.
$118,354 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s consolidated control over Russia’s security services, military command, and United Russia party continues to underpin trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur in 2026. Reports from March–May 2026 of tightened Kremlin security measures and unnamed European intelligence concerns over possible plots involving figures like Sergei Shoigu generated brief speculation, yet these have not produced verifiable actions or elite defections. Putin’s high approval ratings, ongoing suppression of opposition, and steady management of the Ukraine war have sustained regime stability through mid-August. While war-related economic strains and elite rivalries remain long-term risks, the absence of recent escalatory developments or institutional fractures supports the market’s strong consensus against a 2026 attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
音量
$118,354終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s consolidated control over Russia’s security services, military command, and United Russia party continues to underpin trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur in 2026. Reports from March–May 2026 of tightened Kremlin security measures and unnamed European intelligence concerns over possible plots involving figures like Sergei Shoigu generated brief speculation, yet these have not produced verifiable actions or elite defections. Putin’s high approval ratings, ongoing suppression of opposition, and steady management of the Ukraine war have sustained regime stability through mid-August. While war-related economic strains and elite rivalries remain long-term risks, the absence of recent escalatory developments or institutional fractures supports the market’s strong consensus against a 2026 attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$118,354終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Putin’s consolidated control over Russia’s security services, military command, and United Russia party continues to underpin trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur in 2026. Reports from March–May 2026 of tightened Kremlin security measures and unnamed European intelligence concerns over possible plots involving figures like Sergei Shoigu generated brief speculation, yet these have not produced verifiable actions or elite defections. Putin’s high approval ratings, ongoing suppression of opposition, and steady management of the Ukraine war have sustained regime stability through mid-August. While war-related economic strains and elite rivalries remain long-term risks, the absence of recent escalatory developments or institutional fractures supports the market’s strong consensus against a 2026 attempt.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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