The Bank of Russia's September 2026 decision to hold the key rate at 14% after successive 25 bp cuts in June and July has left December expectations closely balanced between no change and a further modest reduction. Persistent proinflationary pressures, including elevated fuel prices from refining disruptions, a more expansionary fiscal stance, and temporary capacity constraints, have prompted the central bank to revise its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 6.0–7.0% while signaling a smoother easing path. Recent data show annual inflation near 6.3% with underlying measures accelerating on one-off factors, even as economic growth moderates. Traders price in roughly equal odds for stability or a 25 bp cut because incoming inflation prints, budget developments, and external risks through year-end could tip the balance either way before the final meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25ベーシスポイントの利下げ 36%
据え置き 35%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ 19%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 8%
新規
新規
2026/12/18
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
19%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ
36%
据え置き
35%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
8%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
8%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ 36%
据え置き 35%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ 19%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ 8%
新規
新規
2026/12/18
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$100 Vol.
19%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ
$1,012 Vol.
36%
据え置き
$1,338 Vol.
35%
25ベーシスポイントの利上げ
$93 Vol.
8%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$118 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Bank of Russia's September 2026 decision to hold the key rate at 14% after successive 25 bp cuts in June and July has left December expectations closely balanced between no change and a further modest reduction. Persistent proinflationary pressures, including elevated fuel prices from refining disruptions, a more expansionary fiscal stance, and temporary capacity constraints, have prompted the central bank to revise its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 6.0–7.0% while signaling a smoother easing path. Recent data show annual inflation near 6.3% with underlying measures accelerating on one-off factors, even as economic growth moderates. Traders price in roughly equal odds for stability or a 25 bp cut because incoming inflation prints, budget developments, and external risks through year-end could tip the balance either way before the final meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 14, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
音量
$2,660終了日
2026/12/18マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:15 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Bank of Russia's September 2026 decision to hold the key rate at 14% after successive 25 bp cuts in June and July has left December expectations closely balanced between no change and a further modest reduction. Persistent proinflationary pressures, including elevated fuel prices from refining disruptions, a more expansionary fiscal stance, and temporary capacity constraints, have prompted the central bank to revise its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 6.0–7.0% while signaling a smoother easing path. Recent data show annual inflation near 6.3% with underlying measures accelerating on one-off factors, even as economic growth moderates. Traders price in roughly equal odds for stability or a 25 bp cut because incoming inflation prints, budget developments, and external risks through year-end could tip the balance either way before the final meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
音量
$2,660終了日
2026/12/18マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:15 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Russia's September 2026 decision to hold the key rate at 14% after successive 25 bp cuts in June and July has left December expectations closely balanced between no change and a further modest reduction. Persistent proinflationary pressures, including elevated fuel prices from refining disruptions, a more expansionary fiscal stance, and temporary capacity constraints, have prompted the central bank to revise its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 6.0–7.0% while signaling a smoother easing path. Recent data show annual inflation near 6.3% with underlying measures accelerating on one-off factors, even as economic growth moderates. Traders price in roughly equal odds for stability or a 25 bp cut because incoming inflation prints, budget developments, and external risks through year-end could tip the balance either way before the final meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問