Russia’s consistent rejection of neutral-venue proposals for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, combined with its insistence on talks only in Moscow after Ukrainian concessions, underpins trader expectations of no bilateral summit before 2027. Recent US-mediated efforts for trilateral technical talks by late October have faced delays, with Moscow citing Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory and polling stations as disruptions, while reiterating demands on territory and neutrality. Putin has dismissed G20 sidelines discussions and earlier G7 offers, and ongoing military operations continue without de-escalation signals that would enable leader-level engagement. A sudden shift in Russian strategy or major US-brokered breakthrough could still alter the timeline, though current positions show little movement toward such an outcome.
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