**Trader consensus prices "No" at 81% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO before 2027, reflecting Kyiv's unwavering commitment to full membership amid stalled peace negotiations with Russia.** President Zelensky rejected "NATO light" options on April 14, 2026, insisting on complete accession without compromises that would imply permanent neutrality. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed early April that membership remains off the agenda due to holdouts among allies lacking consensus. Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva ended abruptly in February without breakthroughs on Moscow's demands for Ukrainian non-alignment, while subsequent diplomacy stalled amid Russia's spring offensive. Absent major diplomatic shifts or concessions before year-end, traders see negligible path to such an agreement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$98,811 Vol.
$98,811 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$98,811 Vol.
$98,811 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.**Trader consensus prices "No" at 81% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO before 2027, reflecting Kyiv's unwavering commitment to full membership amid stalled peace negotiations with Russia.** President Zelensky rejected "NATO light" options on April 14, 2026, insisting on complete accession without compromises that would imply permanent neutrality. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed early April that membership remains off the agenda due to holdouts among allies lacking consensus. Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva ended abruptly in February without breakthroughs on Moscow's demands for Ukrainian non-alignment, while subsequent diplomacy stalled amid Russia's spring offensive. Absent major diplomatic shifts or concessions before year-end, traders see negligible path to such an agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
音量
$98,811終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.**Trader consensus prices "No" at 81% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO before 2027, reflecting Kyiv's unwavering commitment to full membership amid stalled peace negotiations with Russia.** President Zelensky rejected "NATO light" options on April 14, 2026, insisting on complete accession without compromises that would imply permanent neutrality. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed early April that membership remains off the agenda due to holdouts among allies lacking consensus. Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva ended abruptly in February without breakthroughs on Moscow's demands for Ukrainian non-alignment, while subsequent diplomacy stalled amid Russia's spring offensive. Absent major diplomatic shifts or concessions before year-end, traders see negligible path to such an agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
音量
$98,811終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus prices "No" at 81% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO before 2027, reflecting Kyiv's unwavering commitment to full membership amid stalled peace negotiations with Russia.** President Zelensky rejected "NATO light" options on April 14, 2026, insisting on complete accession without compromises that would imply permanent neutrality. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed early April that membership remains off the agenda due to holdouts among allies lacking consensus. Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva ended abruptly in February without breakthroughs on Moscow's demands for Ukrainian non-alignment, while subsequent diplomacy stalled amid Russia's spring offensive. Absent major diplomatic shifts or concessions before year-end, traders see negligible path to such an agreement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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