Ukraine remains firmly committed to NATO accession despite the ongoing war with Russia, with President Zelenskyy publicly pressing allies at the July 2026 Ankara Summit for membership based on battlefield interoperability gains and reform progress. NATO statements continue to describe Ukraine’s path as irreversible, bypassing the Membership Action Plan since Vilnius in 2023, while delivering €70 billion in aid commitments through 2027 without any invitation or demands for Kyiv to renounce future membership. Earlier 2025 U.S. signals against immediate accession prompted no formal Ukrainian concession on timelines, and recent diplomatic activity has instead focused on EU accession talks and security guarantees short of alliance entry. Active hostilities and the requirement for unanimous allied consent further reduce pressure for any pre-2027 agreement to forgo membership.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
9% 確率
$134,421 Vol.
$134,421 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
9% 確率
$134,421 Vol.
$134,421 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine remains firmly committed to NATO accession despite the ongoing war with Russia, with President Zelenskyy publicly pressing allies at the July 2026 Ankara Summit for membership based on battlefield interoperability gains and reform progress. NATO statements continue to describe Ukraine’s path as irreversible, bypassing the Membership Action Plan since Vilnius in 2023, while delivering €70 billion in aid commitments through 2027 without any invitation or demands for Kyiv to renounce future membership. Earlier 2025 U.S. signals against immediate accession prompted no formal Ukrainian concession on timelines, and recent diplomatic activity has instead focused on EU accession talks and security guarantees short of alliance entry. Active hostilities and the requirement for unanimous allied consent further reduce pressure for any pre-2027 agreement to forgo membership.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
音量
$134,421終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine remains firmly committed to NATO accession despite the ongoing war with Russia, with President Zelenskyy publicly pressing allies at the July 2026 Ankara Summit for membership based on battlefield interoperability gains and reform progress. NATO statements continue to describe Ukraine’s path as irreversible, bypassing the Membership Action Plan since Vilnius in 2023, while delivering €70 billion in aid commitments through 2027 without any invitation or demands for Kyiv to renounce future membership. Earlier 2025 U.S. signals against immediate accession prompted no formal Ukrainian concession on timelines, and recent diplomatic activity has instead focused on EU accession talks and security guarantees short of alliance entry. Active hostilities and the requirement for unanimous allied consent further reduce pressure for any pre-2027 agreement to forgo membership.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
音量
$134,421終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine remains firmly committed to NATO accession despite the ongoing war with Russia, with President Zelenskyy publicly pressing allies at the July 2026 Ankara Summit for membership based on battlefield interoperability gains and reform progress. NATO statements continue to describe Ukraine’s path as irreversible, bypassing the Membership Action Plan since Vilnius in 2023, while delivering €70 billion in aid commitments through 2027 without any invitation or demands for Kyiv to renounce future membership. Earlier 2025 U.S. signals against immediate accession prompted no formal Ukrainian concession on timelines, and recent diplomatic activity has instead focused on EU accession talks and security guarantees short of alliance entry. Active hostilities and the requirement for unanimous allied consent further reduce pressure for any pre-2027 agreement to forgo membership.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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