NATO's institutional framework, anchored in the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty and Article 5 collective defense obligations, underpins trader consensus against dissolution before 2027. Recent developments, including the July 2026 Ankara Summit Declaration with €70 billion in pledges for Ukraine and sustained defense spending commitments exceeding 2% GDP targets across members, reinforce alliance cohesion amid ongoing support for partners and responses to Russian actions. U.S. leadership transitions have prompted debates over burden-sharing, yet formal termination requires broad consensus and congressional approval, historically stabilizing the organization. Realistic scenarios that could shift probabilities include major escalations fracturing transatlantic priorities or coordinated withdrawals by multiple members, though such steps remain procedurally complex and without precedent in the alliance's history.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
2% 確率
$122,369 Vol.
$122,369 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
2% 確率
$122,369 Vol.
$122,369 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional framework, anchored in the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty and Article 5 collective defense obligations, underpins trader consensus against dissolution before 2027. Recent developments, including the July 2026 Ankara Summit Declaration with €70 billion in pledges for Ukraine and sustained defense spending commitments exceeding 2% GDP targets across members, reinforce alliance cohesion amid ongoing support for partners and responses to Russian actions. U.S. leadership transitions have prompted debates over burden-sharing, yet formal termination requires broad consensus and congressional approval, historically stabilizing the organization. Realistic scenarios that could shift probabilities include major escalations fracturing transatlantic priorities or coordinated withdrawals by multiple members, though such steps remain procedurally complex and without precedent in the alliance's history.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
音量
$122,369終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional framework, anchored in the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty and Article 5 collective defense obligations, underpins trader consensus against dissolution before 2027. Recent developments, including the July 2026 Ankara Summit Declaration with €70 billion in pledges for Ukraine and sustained defense spending commitments exceeding 2% GDP targets across members, reinforce alliance cohesion amid ongoing support for partners and responses to Russian actions. U.S. leadership transitions have prompted debates over burden-sharing, yet formal termination requires broad consensus and congressional approval, historically stabilizing the organization. Realistic scenarios that could shift probabilities include major escalations fracturing transatlantic priorities or coordinated withdrawals by multiple members, though such steps remain procedurally complex and without precedent in the alliance's history.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$122,369終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NATO's institutional framework, anchored in the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty and Article 5 collective defense obligations, underpins trader consensus against dissolution before 2027. Recent developments, including the July 2026 Ankara Summit Declaration with €70 billion in pledges for Ukraine and sustained defense spending commitments exceeding 2% GDP targets across members, reinforce alliance cohesion amid ongoing support for partners and responses to Russian actions. U.S. leadership transitions have prompted debates over burden-sharing, yet formal termination requires broad consensus and congressional approval, historically stabilizing the organization. Realistic scenarios that could shift probabilities include major escalations fracturing transatlantic priorities or coordinated withdrawals by multiple members, though such steps remain procedurally complex and without precedent in the alliance's history.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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