Trader consensus prices a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, driven by the May 3 OPEC+ meeting where a Saudi Arabia-led subgroup of seven nations—including Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait—provisionally approved a modest 188,000 barrels per day output increase for June amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict. This action, post-UAE's shock May 1 exit as the cartel's third-largest producer, reaffirmed commitment to market stability via monthly conformity reviews and compensation programs. Amid forecasts of 2026 oil surpluses, the wisdom of crowds backs OPEC+'s adaptive coordination, though realistic challenges include chronic quota cheating by Iraq and Iran or Saudi fatigue in enforcing discipline ahead of upcoming reviews.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$16,734 Vol.
$16,734 Vol.
2026/12/31
$16,734 Vol.
$16,734 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, driven by the May 3 OPEC+ meeting where a Saudi Arabia-led subgroup of seven nations—including Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait—provisionally approved a modest 188,000 barrels per day output increase for June amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict. This action, post-UAE's shock May 1 exit as the cartel's third-largest producer, reaffirmed commitment to market stability via monthly conformity reviews and compensation programs. Amid forecasts of 2026 oil surpluses, the wisdom of crowds backs OPEC+'s adaptive coordination, though realistic challenges include chronic quota cheating by Iraq and Iran or Saudi fatigue in enforcing discipline ahead of upcoming reviews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
音量
$16,734終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, driven by the May 3 OPEC+ meeting where a Saudi Arabia-led subgroup of seven nations—including Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait—provisionally approved a modest 188,000 barrels per day output increase for June amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict. This action, post-UAE's shock May 1 exit as the cartel's third-largest producer, reaffirmed commitment to market stability via monthly conformity reviews and compensation programs. Amid forecasts of 2026 oil surpluses, the wisdom of crowds backs OPEC+'s adaptive coordination, though realistic challenges include chronic quota cheating by Iraq and Iran or Saudi fatigue in enforcing discipline ahead of upcoming reviews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$16,734終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, driven by the May 3 OPEC+ meeting where a Saudi Arabia-led subgroup of seven nations—including Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait—provisionally approved a modest 188,000 barrels per day output increase for June amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict. This action, post-UAE's shock May 1 exit as the cartel's third-largest producer, reaffirmed commitment to market stability via monthly conformity reviews and compensation programs. Amid forecasts of 2026 oil surpluses, the wisdom of crowds backs OPEC+'s adaptive coordination, though realistic challenges include chronic quota cheating by Iraq and Iran or Saudi fatigue in enforcing discipline ahead of upcoming reviews.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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