Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the European Union will endure past 2026, driven by the absence of any Article 50 withdrawal activations or referendums among its 27 member states, alongside entrenched economic interdependencies in the single market and eurozone. Recent EU institutions' joint declaration in late April committing to a "One Europe, One Market" roadmap by 2027—signed by Parliament, Council, and Commission presidents—signals reinforced unity amid geopolitical volatility from Russia and global trade shifts. Post-Brexit complexities deter exits, with no major countries like Germany, France, or Italy pursuing dissolution. Realistic disruptors remain limited to cascading populist coalitions, financial crises, or war escalation, though structural barriers and historical resilience maintain stability through December 31, 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
はい
$166,391 Vol.
$166,391 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$166,391 Vol.
$166,391 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the European Union will endure past 2026, driven by the absence of any Article 50 withdrawal activations or referendums among its 27 member states, alongside entrenched economic interdependencies in the single market and eurozone. Recent EU institutions' joint declaration in late April committing to a "One Europe, One Market" roadmap by 2027—signed by Parliament, Council, and Commission presidents—signals reinforced unity amid geopolitical volatility from Russia and global trade shifts. Post-Brexit complexities deter exits, with no major countries like Germany, France, or Italy pursuing dissolution. Realistic disruptors remain limited to cascading populist coalitions, financial crises, or war escalation, though structural barriers and historical resilience maintain stability through December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
音量
$166,391終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the European Union will endure past 2026, driven by the absence of any Article 50 withdrawal activations or referendums among its 27 member states, alongside entrenched economic interdependencies in the single market and eurozone. Recent EU institutions' joint declaration in late April committing to a "One Europe, One Market" roadmap by 2027—signed by Parliament, Council, and Commission presidents—signals reinforced unity amid geopolitical volatility from Russia and global trade shifts. Post-Brexit complexities deter exits, with no major countries like Germany, France, or Italy pursuing dissolution. Realistic disruptors remain limited to cascading populist coalitions, financial crises, or war escalation, though structural barriers and historical resilience maintain stability through December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$166,391終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the European Union will endure past 2026, driven by the absence of any Article 50 withdrawal activations or referendums among its 27 member states, alongside entrenched economic interdependencies in the single market and eurozone. Recent EU institutions' joint declaration in late April committing to a "One Europe, One Market" roadmap by 2027—signed by Parliament, Council, and Commission presidents—signals reinforced unity amid geopolitical volatility from Russia and global trade shifts. Post-Brexit complexities deter exits, with no major countries like Germany, France, or Italy pursuing dissolution. Realistic disruptors remain limited to cascading populist coalitions, financial crises, or war escalation, though structural barriers and historical resilience maintain stability through December 31, 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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