The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, already satisfied earlier exit expectations, leaving the group with 11 members focused on quota management amid Iran-related supply disruptions and Hormuz constraints. With only two months remaining in 2026, core producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq have prioritized steady December output targets and 2027 framework decisions over membership shifts. Speculation around Venezuela or others has surfaced but lacks confirmed announcements, active negotiations, or quota enforcement pressures that would accelerate exits before year-end. Trader consensus at 90.5% for no further departure reflects the absence of recent catalysts and the precedent of prior exits occurring earlier in their respective years.