Following the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28, 2026, to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—driven by disputes over production quotas amid Iran-related war disruptions and Strait of Hormuz tensions—traders now assess the odds of a second departure this year. OPEC+ responded swiftly with a May 3 ministerial meeting, where Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirmed market stability commitments through a modest 188,000 barrels-per-day June quota increase, signaling group cohesion. Russia explicitly denied exit plans, while speculation on Kazakhstan or Iraq as next lacks official statements or procedural moves like quota disputes. With no further withdrawals or credible rumors in the past two weeks, the wisdom of crowds prices another 2026 exit as unlikely before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$92,570 Vol.
$92,570 Vol.
2026/12/31
$92,570 Vol.
$92,570 Vol.
2026/12/31
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28, 2026, to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—driven by disputes over production quotas amid Iran-related war disruptions and Strait of Hormuz tensions—traders now assess the odds of a second departure this year. OPEC+ responded swiftly with a May 3 ministerial meeting, where Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirmed market stability commitments through a modest 188,000 barrels-per-day June quota increase, signaling group cohesion. Russia explicitly denied exit plans, while speculation on Kazakhstan or Iraq as next lacks official statements or procedural moves like quota disputes. With no further withdrawals or credible rumors in the past two weeks, the wisdom of crowds prices another 2026 exit as unlikely before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
音量
$92,570終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28, 2026, to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—driven by disputes over production quotas amid Iran-related war disruptions and Strait of Hormuz tensions—traders now assess the odds of a second departure this year. OPEC+ responded swiftly with a May 3 ministerial meeting, where Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirmed market stability commitments through a modest 188,000 barrels-per-day June quota increase, signaling group cohesion. Russia explicitly denied exit plans, while speculation on Kazakhstan or Iraq as next lacks official statements or procedural moves like quota disputes. With no further withdrawals or credible rumors in the past two weeks, the wisdom of crowds prices another 2026 exit as unlikely before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$92,570終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28, 2026, to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—driven by disputes over production quotas amid Iran-related war disruptions and Strait of Hormuz tensions—traders now assess the odds of a second departure this year. OPEC+ responded swiftly with a May 3 ministerial meeting, where Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirmed market stability commitments through a modest 188,000 barrels-per-day June quota increase, signaling group cohesion. Russia explicitly denied exit plans, while speculation on Kazakhstan or Iraq as next lacks official statements or procedural moves like quota disputes. With no further withdrawals or credible rumors in the past two weeks, the wisdom of crowds prices another 2026 exit as unlikely before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問