US-Iran tensions and repeated Iranian missile strikes on Al Udeid, including damage to its Combined Air Operations Center in early 2026, have prompted partial US personnel reductions and Qatari calls for drawdowns amid force protection concerns. These events, alongside a broader regional military posture shift under the current administration, create trader uncertainty over whether Washington will formally announce a full withdrawal by the September 30 deadline. Counterbalancing factors include the base's longstanding role as CENTCOM's forward headquarters, ongoing diplomatic ties with Qatar, and potential for repaired or limited operations. Recent partial evacuations and resumption signals keep the outcome closely contested, with any new policy statement, ceasefire developments, or alternative basing agreements likely to shift the implied probability in either direction before the cutoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/09/30
新規
新規
2026/09/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will completely withdraw from Al Udeid Air Base between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base refers to a US directive to remove all military personnel from the base.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of The United States’ present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. An announcement of a decision to implement such a withdrawal will qualify, regardless of whether some personnel remain at the base, or whether personnel are intended to remain for a period of time prior to withdrawal.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. The announcement need not use specific terminology, provided the substance of a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base is clearly and unambiguously communicated. For example, an announcement that the United States will permanently end military operations at Al Udeid Air Base, or withdraw all troops from Qatar (necessarily including Al Udeid), would qualify; however a vague announcement that the United States will draw down its troop presence in the middle east would not.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for Donald Trump or the United States government or military;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of a withdrawal rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the withdrawal is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives. US-Iran tensions and repeated Iranian missile strikes on Al Udeid, including damage to its Combined Air Operations Center in early 2026, have prompted partial US personnel reductions and Qatari calls for drawdowns amid force protection concerns. These events, alongside a broader regional military posture shift under the current administration, create trader uncertainty over whether Washington will formally announce a full withdrawal by the September 30 deadline. Counterbalancing factors include the base's longstanding role as CENTCOM's forward headquarters, ongoing diplomatic ties with Qatar, and potential for repaired or limited operations. Recent partial evacuations and resumption signals keep the outcome closely contested, with any new policy statement, ceasefire developments, or alternative basing agreements likely to shift the implied probability in either direction before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will completely withdraw from Al Udeid Air Base between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base refers to a US directive to remove all military personnel from the base.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of The United States’ present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. An announcement of a decision to implement such a withdrawal will qualify, regardless of whether some personnel remain at the base, or whether personnel are intended to remain for a period of time prior to withdrawal.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. The announcement need not use specific terminology, provided the substance of a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base is clearly and unambiguously communicated. For example, an announcement that the United States will permanently end military operations at Al Udeid Air Base, or withdraw all troops from Qatar (necessarily including Al Udeid), would qualify; however a vague announcement that the United States will draw down its troop presence in the middle east would not.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for Donald Trump or the United States government or military;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of a withdrawal rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the withdrawal is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
A complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base refers to a US directive to remove all military personnel from the base.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of The United States’ present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. An announcement of a decision to implement such a withdrawal will qualify, regardless of whether some personnel remain at the base, or whether personnel are intended to remain for a period of time prior to withdrawal.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. The announcement need not use specific terminology, provided the substance of a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base is clearly and unambiguously communicated. For example, an announcement that the United States will permanently end military operations at Al Udeid Air Base, or withdraw all troops from Qatar (necessarily including Al Udeid), would qualify; however a vague announcement that the United States will draw down its troop presence in the middle east would not.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for Donald Trump or the United States government or military;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of a withdrawal rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the withdrawal is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
マーケット開始日： Jun 26, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
音量
$61終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will completely withdraw from Al Udeid Air Base between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base refers to a US directive to remove all military personnel from the base.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of The United States’ present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. An announcement of a decision to implement such a withdrawal will qualify, regardless of whether some personnel remain at the base, or whether personnel are intended to remain for a period of time prior to withdrawal.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. The announcement need not use specific terminology, provided the substance of a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base is clearly and unambiguously communicated. For example, an announcement that the United States will permanently end military operations at Al Udeid Air Base, or withdraw all troops from Qatar (necessarily including Al Udeid), would qualify; however a vague announcement that the United States will draw down its troop presence in the middle east would not.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for Donald Trump or the United States government or military;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of a withdrawal rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the withdrawal is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives. US-Iran tensions and repeated Iranian missile strikes on Al Udeid, including damage to its Combined Air Operations Center in early 2026, have prompted partial US personnel reductions and Qatari calls for drawdowns amid force protection concerns. These events, alongside a broader regional military posture shift under the current administration, create trader uncertainty over whether Washington will formally announce a full withdrawal by the September 30 deadline. Counterbalancing factors include the base's longstanding role as CENTCOM's forward headquarters, ongoing diplomatic ties with Qatar, and potential for repaired or limited operations. Recent partial evacuations and resumption signals keep the outcome closely contested, with any new policy statement, ceasefire developments, or alternative basing agreements likely to shift the implied probability in either direction before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will completely withdraw from Al Udeid Air Base between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base refers to a US directive to remove all military personnel from the base.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of The United States’ present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. An announcement of a decision to implement such a withdrawal will qualify, regardless of whether some personnel remain at the base, or whether personnel are intended to remain for a period of time prior to withdrawal.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. The announcement need not use specific terminology, provided the substance of a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base is clearly and unambiguously communicated. For example, an announcement that the United States will permanently end military operations at Al Udeid Air Base, or withdraw all troops from Qatar (necessarily including Al Udeid), would qualify; however a vague announcement that the United States will draw down its troop presence in the middle east would not.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for Donald Trump or the United States government or military;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of a withdrawal rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the withdrawal is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
A complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base refers to a US directive to remove all military personnel from the base.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of The United States’ present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. An announcement of a decision to implement such a withdrawal will qualify, regardless of whether some personnel remain at the base, or whether personnel are intended to remain for a period of time prior to withdrawal.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. The announcement need not use specific terminology, provided the substance of a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base is clearly and unambiguously communicated. For example, an announcement that the United States will permanently end military operations at Al Udeid Air Base, or withdraw all troops from Qatar (necessarily including Al Udeid), would qualify; however a vague announcement that the United States will draw down its troop presence in the middle east would not.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for Donald Trump or the United States government or military;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of a withdrawal rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the withdrawal is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
音量
$61終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran tensions and repeated Iranian missile strikes on Al Udeid, including damage to its Combined Air Operations Center in early 2026, have prompted partial US personnel reductions and Qatari calls for drawdowns amid force protection concerns. These events, alongside a broader regional military posture shift under the current administration, create trader uncertainty over whether Washington will formally announce a full withdrawal by the September 30 deadline. Counterbalancing factors include the base's longstanding role as CENTCOM's forward headquarters, ongoing diplomatic ties with Qatar, and potential for repaired or limited operations. Recent partial evacuations and resumption signals keep the outcome closely contested, with any new policy statement, ceasefire developments, or alternative basing agreements likely to shift the implied probability in either direction before the cutoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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