US-Iran diplomacy centers on a draft memorandum of understanding addressing the Strait of Hormuz opening, sanctions relief, nuclear constraints, and related security issues following earlier military exchanges. In late May 2026, negotiators reportedly reached a framework, prompting President Trump to seek edits on uranium handling and verification timelines; Iranian counterparts have resisted changes, producing reports of stalemate by mid-June. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing bilateral talks mediated in part by Oman, alongside parallel Israeli concerns and domestic US political pressures favoring de-escalation before midterm cycles. Resolution of the market hinges on any formal US statement ending participation, with timelines tied to the 60-day technical period referenced in recent announcements. Structural factors include executive authority over negotiations and the absence of congressional ratification requirements for an MOU.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/06/26
6月26日
2%
6月30日
4%
7月31日
12%
$9,724 Vol.
6月26日
$3,645 Vol.
2%
6月30日
$2,926 Vol.
4%
7月31日
$3,153 Vol.
12%
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.US-Iran diplomacy centers on a draft memorandum of understanding addressing the Strait of Hormuz opening, sanctions relief, nuclear constraints, and related security issues following earlier military exchanges. In late May 2026, negotiators reportedly reached a framework, prompting President Trump to seek edits on uranium handling and verification timelines; Iranian counterparts have resisted changes, producing reports of stalemate by mid-June. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing bilateral talks mediated in part by Oman, alongside parallel Israeli concerns and domestic US political pressures favoring de-escalation before midterm cycles. Resolution of the market hinges on any formal US statement ending participation, with timelines tied to the 60-day technical period referenced in recent announcements. Structural factors include executive authority over negotiations and the absence of congressional ratification requirements for an MOU.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.
マーケット開始日： Jun 22, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
音量
$9,724終了日
2026/07/31マーケット開始日
Jun 22, 2026, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.US-Iran diplomacy centers on a draft memorandum of understanding addressing the Strait of Hormuz opening, sanctions relief, nuclear constraints, and related security issues following earlier military exchanges. In late May 2026, negotiators reportedly reached a framework, prompting President Trump to seek edits on uranium handling and verification timelines; Iranian counterparts have resisted changes, producing reports of stalemate by mid-June. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing bilateral talks mediated in part by Oman, alongside parallel Israeli concerns and domestic US political pressures favoring de-escalation before midterm cycles. Resolution of the market hinges on any formal US statement ending participation, with timelines tied to the 60-day technical period referenced in recent announcements. Structural factors include executive authority over negotiations and the absence of congressional ratification requirements for an MOU.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which the United States announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the United States' termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from the United States.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the United States actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of State, and the National Security Council, or the official representatives of the United States government.
音量
$9,724終了日
2026/07/31マーケット開始日
Jun 22, 2026, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomacy centers on a draft memorandum of understanding addressing the Strait of Hormuz opening, sanctions relief, nuclear constraints, and related security issues following earlier military exchanges. In late May 2026, negotiators reportedly reached a framework, prompting President Trump to seek edits on uranium handling and verification timelines; Iranian counterparts have resisted changes, producing reports of stalemate by mid-June. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing bilateral talks mediated in part by Oman, alongside parallel Israeli concerns and domestic US political pressures favoring de-escalation before midterm cycles. Resolution of the market hinges on any formal US statement ending participation, with timelines tied to the 60-day technical period referenced in recent announcements. Structural factors include executive authority over negotiations and the absence of congressional ratification requirements for an MOU.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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