Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed by two years after parliament extended its mandate in March amid renewed full-scale conflict with Israel and widespread displacement. This delay, coupled with the 2026 war’s damage to infrastructure and supply lines, has left the contest for the 128 seats highly uncertain under the sectarian proportional system. Amal Movement holds the highest implied probability among listed options due to its organizational reach in core Shiite districts and Speaker Nabih Berri’s long-standing influence, while Lebanese Forces and other Christian parties eye potential diaspora support and reform appeals. Hezbollah faces leadership losses and scrutiny over disarmament, and opposition or independent lists remain fragmented without unified alliances. Trader pricing reflects this dispersion, where coalition negotiations, expatriate turnout, reconstruction priorities, and any further security shifts could consolidate or redistribute seats across the wide field before the rescheduled vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Lebanese Forces (LF) 2.3%
Amal Movement (Amal) 2.2%
Hezbollah (Hezb) <1%
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) <1%
$617,674 Vol.
$617,674 Vol.
Lebanese Forces (LF)
2%
Amal Movement (Amal)
2%
Hezbollah (Hezb)
1%
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)
<1%
Union Party (UP)
<1%
National Dialogue Party (NDP)
<1%
Mada Party (Mada)
<1%
Taqaddom Party
<1%
Watani Alliance (Watani)
<1%
Kataeb Party (Kataeb)
<1%
Marada Movement (MM)
<1%
Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)
<1%
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)
<1%
Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)
<1%
Islamic Group (IG)
<1%
Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)
<1%
Independence Movement (IM)
<1%
National Liberal Party (NLP)
<1%
Dignity Movement (DM)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)
<1%
Lebanese Forces (LF) 2.3%
Amal Movement (Amal) 2.2%
Hezbollah (Hezb) <1%
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) <1%
$617,674 Vol.
$617,674 Vol.
Lebanese Forces (LF)
2%
Amal Movement (Amal)
2%
Hezbollah (Hezb)
1%
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)
<1%
Union Party (UP)
<1%
National Dialogue Party (NDP)
<1%
Mada Party (Mada)
<1%
Taqaddom Party
<1%
Watani Alliance (Watani)
<1%
Kataeb Party (Kataeb)
<1%
Marada Movement (MM)
<1%
Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)
<1%
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)
<1%
Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)
<1%
Islamic Group (IG)
<1%
Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)
<1%
Independence Movement (IM)
<1%
National Liberal Party (NLP)
<1%
Dignity Movement (DM)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed by two years after parliament extended its mandate in March amid renewed full-scale conflict with Israel and widespread displacement. This delay, coupled with the 2026 war’s damage to infrastructure and supply lines, has left the contest for the 128 seats highly uncertain under the sectarian proportional system. Amal Movement holds the highest implied probability among listed options due to its organizational reach in core Shiite districts and Speaker Nabih Berri’s long-standing influence, while Lebanese Forces and other Christian parties eye potential diaspora support and reform appeals. Hezbollah faces leadership losses and scrutiny over disarmament, and opposition or independent lists remain fragmented without unified alliances. Trader pricing reflects this dispersion, where coalition negotiations, expatriate turnout, reconstruction priorities, and any further security shifts could consolidate or redistribute seats across the wide field before the rescheduled vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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