Lebanon's parliamentary elections present a fragmented field where trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to the Amal Movement at 7 percent, followed by the Lebanese Forces at 5.1 percent and Taqaddom at 3.8 percent, with every remaining party below 4 percent. This distribution arises from the country's confessional electoral system, which allocates seats by sect and favors broad coalitions over outright majorities. Leading contenders differ primarily in their sectarian bases, historical alliances, and positions on governance reform versus established power structures. Consolidation behind one outcome would likely require last-minute electoral pacts among like-minded factions or voter shifts tied to ongoing economic pressures and regional security developments ahead of the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アマル運動（アマル） 7.0%
レバノン軍（LF） 5.2%
タカッダム党 3.8%
ReLebanon 3.1%
$532,343 Vol.
$532,343 Vol.
2026/05/31
アマル運動（アマル）
7%
レバノン軍（LF）
5%
タカッダム党
4%
ReLebanon
3%
マラダ運動（MM）
3%
ヒズボラ（ヒズブ）
3%
イスラム慈善事業協会（ICPA）
2%
ワタニ連合（ワタニ）
2%
自由愛国運動（FPM）
2%
カタエブ党（カタエブ）
1%
ユニオン党（UP）
1%
人民ナセル主義機構（PNO）
1%
国民自由党（NLP）
1%
イスラム集団（IG）
<1%
国民対話党（NDP）
<1%
アルメニア革命連盟（ARF）
<1%
マダ党（Mada）
<1%
ラナ社会民主党（ラナ）
<1%
レバノンのアラブ社会主義バアス党（バアス）
<1%
カット・アフマル
<1%
進歩社会党（PSP）
<1%
独立運動（IM）
<1%
尊厳運動（DM）
<1%
アマル運動（アマル） 7.0%
レバノン軍（LF） 5.2%
タカッダム党 3.8%
ReLebanon 3.1%
$532,343 Vol.
$532,343 Vol.
2026/05/31
アマル運動（アマル）
$53,709 Vol.
7%
レバノン軍（LF）
$158,091 Vol.
5%
タカッダム党
$6,113 Vol.
4%
ReLebanon
$3,305 Vol.
3%
マラダ運動（MM）
$3,796 Vol.
3%
ヒズボラ（ヒズブ）
$44,038 Vol.
3%
イスラム慈善事業協会（ICPA）
$4,398 Vol.
2%
ワタニ連合（ワタニ）
$4,686 Vol.
2%
自由愛国運動（FPM）
$74,483 Vol.
2%
カタエブ党（カタエブ）
$4,126 Vol.
1%
ユニオン党（UP）
$3,376 Vol.
1%
人民ナセル主義機構（PNO）
$4,584 Vol.
1%
国民自由党（NLP）
$5,135 Vol.
1%
イスラム集団（IG）
$3,585 Vol.
<1%
国民対話党（NDP）
$41,888 Vol.
<1%
アルメニア革命連盟（ARF）
$5,112 Vol.
<1%
マダ党（Mada）
$24,363 Vol.
<1%
ラナ社会民主党（ラナ）
$4,450 Vol.
<1%
レバノンのアラブ社会主義バアス党（バアス）
$6,573 Vol.
<1%
カット・アフマル
$3,330 Vol.
<1%
進歩社会党（PSP）
$47,456 Vol.
<1%
独立運動（IM）
$3,135 Vol.
<1%
尊厳運動（DM）
$22,716 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary elections present a fragmented field where trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to the Amal Movement at 7 percent, followed by the Lebanese Forces at 5.1 percent and Taqaddom at 3.8 percent, with every remaining party below 4 percent. This distribution arises from the country's confessional electoral system, which allocates seats by sect and favors broad coalitions over outright majorities. Leading contenders differ primarily in their sectarian bases, historical alliances, and positions on governance reform versus established power structures. Consolidation behind one outcome would likely require last-minute electoral pacts among like-minded factions or voter shifts tied to ongoing economic pressures and regional security developments ahead of the vote.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
音量
$532,343終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary elections present a fragmented field where trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to the Amal Movement at 7 percent, followed by the Lebanese Forces at 5.1 percent and Taqaddom at 3.8 percent, with every remaining party below 4 percent. This distribution arises from the country's confessional electoral system, which allocates seats by sect and favors broad coalitions over outright majorities. Leading contenders differ primarily in their sectarian bases, historical alliances, and positions on governance reform versus established power structures. Consolidation behind one outcome would likely require last-minute electoral pacts among like-minded factions or voter shifts tied to ongoing economic pressures and regional security developments ahead of the vote.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
音量
$532,343終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon's parliamentary elections present a fragmented field where trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to the Amal Movement at 7 percent, followed by the Lebanese Forces at 5.1 percent and Taqaddom at 3.8 percent, with every remaining party below 4 percent. This distribution arises from the country's confessional electoral system, which allocates seats by sect and favors broad coalitions over outright majorities. Leading contenders differ primarily in their sectarian bases, historical alliances, and positions on governance reform versus established power structures. Consolidation behind one outcome would likely require last-minute electoral pacts among like-minded factions or voter shifts tied to ongoing economic pressures and regional security developments ahead of the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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