**Smotrich’s public rejection of a renewed alliance has anchored trader expectations that Religious Zionist Party and Otzma Yehudit will contest the October 2026 Knesset election on separate lists.** In a mid-August Jerusalem Post interview, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated that his party intends to run independently, citing its demonstrated ability to secure seats without Ben-Gvir and ruling out any joint slate. This followed June reporting that Prime Minister Netanyahu had floated merger incentives, which both leaders declined—Smotrich to avoid subordinate positioning and Ben-Gvir confident in polling support for Otzma Yehudit alone. Current surveys show each party hovering near or above the electoral threshold when running separately, reducing immediate pressure for technical unification despite the narrow right-wing bloc dynamics. Absent a sudden reversal before list submission, the explicit statements and independent polling trajectories sustain the market’s 63.5% probability on “No.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
34% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/08
はい
34% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/08
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Smotrich’s public rejection of a renewed alliance has anchored trader expectations that Religious Zionist Party and Otzma Yehudit will contest the October 2026 Knesset election on separate lists.** In a mid-August Jerusalem Post interview, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated that his party intends to run independently, citing its demonstrated ability to secure seats without Ben-Gvir and ruling out any joint slate. This followed June reporting that Prime Minister Netanyahu had floated merger incentives, which both leaders declined—Smotrich to avoid subordinate positioning and Ben-Gvir confident in polling support for Otzma Yehudit alone. Current surveys show each party hovering near or above the electoral threshold when running separately, reducing immediate pressure for technical unification despite the narrow right-wing bloc dynamics. Absent a sudden reversal before list submission, the explicit statements and independent polling trajectories sustain the market’s 63.5% probability on “No.”
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
マーケット開始日： Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ET
音量
$352終了日
2026/09/08マーケット開始日
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Smotrich’s public rejection of a renewed alliance has anchored trader expectations that Religious Zionist Party and Otzma Yehudit will contest the October 2026 Knesset election on separate lists.** In a mid-August Jerusalem Post interview, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated that his party intends to run independently, citing its demonstrated ability to secure seats without Ben-Gvir and ruling out any joint slate. This followed June reporting that Prime Minister Netanyahu had floated merger incentives, which both leaders declined—Smotrich to avoid subordinate positioning and Ben-Gvir confident in polling support for Otzma Yehudit alone. Current surveys show each party hovering near or above the electoral threshold when running separately, reducing immediate pressure for technical unification despite the narrow right-wing bloc dynamics. Absent a sudden reversal before list submission, the explicit statements and independent polling trajectories sustain the market’s 63.5% probability on “No.”
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
音量
$417終了日
2026/09/08マーケット開始日
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Smotrich’s public rejection of a renewed alliance has anchored trader expectations that Religious Zionist Party and Otzma Yehudit will contest the October 2026 Knesset election on separate lists.** In a mid-August Jerusalem Post interview, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated that his party intends to run independently, citing its demonstrated ability to secure seats without Ben-Gvir and ruling out any joint slate. This followed June reporting that Prime Minister Netanyahu had floated merger incentives, which both leaders declined—Smotrich to avoid subordinate positioning and Ben-Gvir confident in polling support for Otzma Yehudit alone. Current surveys show each party hovering near or above the electoral threshold when running separately, reducing immediate pressure for technical unification despite the narrow right-wing bloc dynamics. Absent a sudden reversal before list submission, the explicit statements and independent polling trajectories sustain the market’s 63.5% probability on “No.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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