Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 18 features a crowded field that includes U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, James Fishback, and Paul Renner, with Donalds holding a substantial polling lead backed by a Trump endorsement. Recent polls place Donalds near or above 47 percent while challengers remain in the mid-teens or lower, yet the split vote keeps projected victory margins fluid. A cancelled debate and ongoing ballot challenges have added last-minute procedural noise without shifting the overall hierarchy. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects this uncertainty, with substantial probability assigned outside the largest Donalds-win categories as participants weigh turnout dynamics and whether any challenger can consolidate enough support to narrow the result.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Donalds 40%+ 45%
Donalds 35–40% 21%
Donalds 30–35% 16%
Donalds 25–30% 3.5%
$18,953 Vol.
$18,953 Vol.
2026/08/18
Donalds 40%+
45%
Donalds 35–40%
21%
Donalds 30–35%
16%
Donalds 25–30%
4%
Donalds 20–25%
3%
ドナルズ 15〜20％
3%
ドナルズ 10～15%
2%
ドナルズ 5～10％
3%
ドナルズ <5%
<1%
コリンズが勝利
<1%
フィッシュバックが勝利
1%
Donalds 40%+ 45%
Donalds 35–40% 21%
Donalds 30–35% 16%
Donalds 25–30% 3.5%
$18,953 Vol.
$18,953 Vol.
2026/08/18
Donalds 40%+
$8,909 Vol.
45%
Donalds 35–40%
$6,071 Vol.
21%
Donalds 30–35%
$690 Vol.
16%
Donalds 25–30%
$436 Vol.
4%
Donalds 20–25%
$426 Vol.
3%
ドナルズ 15〜20％
$438 Vol.
3%
ドナルズ 10～15%
$378 Vol.
2%
ドナルズ 5～10％
$361 Vol.
3%
ドナルズ <5%
$315 Vol.
<1%
コリンズが勝利
$466 Vol.
<1%
フィッシュバックが勝利
$463 Vol.
1%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 18 features a crowded field that includes U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, James Fishback, and Paul Renner, with Donalds holding a substantial polling lead backed by a Trump endorsement. Recent polls place Donalds near or above 47 percent while challengers remain in the mid-teens or lower, yet the split vote keeps projected victory margins fluid. A cancelled debate and ongoing ballot challenges have added last-minute procedural noise without shifting the overall hierarchy. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects this uncertainty, with substantial probability assigned outside the largest Donalds-win categories as participants weigh turnout dynamics and whether any challenger can consolidate enough support to narrow the result.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
音量
$18,953終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 18 features a crowded field that includes U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, James Fishback, and Paul Renner, with Donalds holding a substantial polling lead backed by a Trump endorsement. Recent polls place Donalds near or above 47 percent while challengers remain in the mid-teens or lower, yet the split vote keeps projected victory margins fluid. A cancelled debate and ongoing ballot challenges have added last-minute procedural noise without shifting the overall hierarchy. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects this uncertainty, with substantial probability assigned outside the largest Donalds-win categories as participants weigh turnout dynamics and whether any challenger can consolidate enough support to narrow the result.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$18,953終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 18 features a crowded field that includes U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, James Fishback, and Paul Renner, with Donalds holding a substantial polling lead backed by a Trump endorsement. Recent polls place Donalds near or above 47 percent while challengers remain in the mid-teens or lower, yet the split vote keeps projected victory margins fluid. A cancelled debate and ongoing ballot challenges have added last-minute procedural noise without shifting the overall hierarchy. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects this uncertainty, with substantial probability assigned outside the largest Donalds-win categories as participants weigh turnout dynamics and whether any challenger can consolidate enough support to narrow the result.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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