Recent August 2026 polls place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead in the first round at 38–42 percent, followed by Liberal Party nominee Flávio Bolsonaro at 28–35 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and other right-wing contenders in the low single digits. Traders price Flávio as the strong favorite for second place because he carries the consolidated support of the Bolsonaro-aligned base after his July party nomination and endorsement from imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula’s narrowing lead in runoff simulations has not altered first-round positioning, while fragmented opposition candidacies have shown little consolidation in the final weeks before the October 4 vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 83%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 9.4%
レナン・サントス 7.2%
ロナルド・カイアド <1%
$4,684,598 Vol.
$4,684,598 Vol.
2026/10/04
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
83%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
9%
レナン・サントス
7%
ロナルド・カイアド
1%
カミロ・サンタナ
1%
ロメウ・ゼマ
<1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
<1%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
<1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
<1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
<1%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
<1%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 83%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 9.4%
レナン・サントス 7.2%
ロナルド・カイアド <1%
$4,684,598 Vol.
$4,684,598 Vol.
2026/10/04
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$266,830 Vol.
83%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
$249,664 Vol.
9%
レナン・サントス
$1,106,220 Vol.
7%
ロナルド・カイアド
$355,035 Vol.
1%
カミロ・サンタナ
$111,785 Vol.
1%
ロメウ・ゼマ
$302,660 Vol.
<1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$703,205 Vol.
<1%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$135,046 Vol.
<1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
$130,231 Vol.
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
$102,665 Vol.
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
$63,521 Vol.
<1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
$199,059 Vol.
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
$674,411 Vol.
<1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
$155,418 Vol.
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
$72,371 Vol.
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
$20,972 Vol.
<1%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
$35,504 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent August 2026 polls place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead in the first round at 38–42 percent, followed by Liberal Party nominee Flávio Bolsonaro at 28–35 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and other right-wing contenders in the low single digits. Traders price Flávio as the strong favorite for second place because he carries the consolidated support of the Bolsonaro-aligned base after his July party nomination and endorsement from imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula’s narrowing lead in runoff simulations has not altered first-round positioning, while fragmented opposition candidacies have shown little consolidation in the final weeks before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$4,684,598終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent August 2026 polls place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead in the first round at 38–42 percent, followed by Liberal Party nominee Flávio Bolsonaro at 28–35 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and other right-wing contenders in the low single digits. Traders price Flávio as the strong favorite for second place because he carries the consolidated support of the Bolsonaro-aligned base after his July party nomination and endorsement from imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula’s narrowing lead in runoff simulations has not altered first-round positioning, while fragmented opposition candidacies have shown little consolidation in the final weeks before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$4,684,598終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent August 2026 polls place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead in the first round at 38–42 percent, followed by Liberal Party nominee Flávio Bolsonaro at 28–35 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and other right-wing contenders in the low single digits. Traders price Flávio as the strong favorite for second place because he carries the consolidated support of the Bolsonaro-aligned base after his July party nomination and endorsement from imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula’s narrowing lead in runoff simulations has not altered first-round positioning, while fragmented opposition candidacies have shown little consolidation in the final weeks before the October 4 vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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