Senator Sergio Moro holds a commanding position in the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial race, reflected in the market's 85.5% implied probability for his victory. Recent Quaest and other surveys show him leading with 35–46% first-round support, well ahead of Requião Filho and Rafael Greca. Moro’s candidacy was officially confirmed by the PL party in early August 2026, consolidating coalition backing after the incumbent Ratinho Júnior became term-limited and his designated successor polled in single digits. Traders appear to price in these polling trends, low undecided shifts in stimulated scenarios, and the absence of major late disruptions as key factors sustaining the frontrunner’s odds ahead of the October election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日セルジオ・モロ 86%
アレクサンドレ・クリ 4.0%
エニオ・ヴェッリ 2.9%
ラファエル・グレカ 2.7%
$39,908 Vol.
$39,908 Vol.
2026/10/05
セルジオ・モロ
86%
アレクサンドレ・クリ
4%
エニオ・ヴェッリ
3%
ラファエル・グレカ
3%
レキアン・フィーリョ
2%
ルイス・フランサ
1%
グト・シウヴァ
1%
ベト・リシャ
1%
セルジオ・モロ 86%
アレクサンドレ・クリ 4.0%
エニオ・ヴェッリ 2.9%
ラファエル・グレカ 2.7%
$39,908 Vol.
$39,908 Vol.
2026/10/05
セルジオ・モロ
$32,190 Vol.
86%
アレクサンドレ・クリ
$452 Vol.
4%
エニオ・ヴェッリ
$309 Vol.
3%
ラファエル・グレカ
$352 Vol.
3%
レキアン・フィーリョ
$5,417 Vol.
2%
ルイス・フランサ
$172 Vol.
1%
グト・シウヴァ
$647 Vol.
1%
ベト・リシャ
$371 Vol.
1%
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Senator Sergio Moro holds a commanding position in the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial race, reflected in the market's 85.5% implied probability for his victory. Recent Quaest and other surveys show him leading with 35–46% first-round support, well ahead of Requião Filho and Rafael Greca. Moro’s candidacy was officially confirmed by the PL party in early August 2026, consolidating coalition backing after the incumbent Ratinho Júnior became term-limited and his designated successor polled in single digits. Traders appear to price in these polling trends, low undecided shifts in stimulated scenarios, and the absence of major late disruptions as key factors sustaining the frontrunner’s odds ahead of the October election.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
音量
$39,908終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Senator Sergio Moro holds a commanding position in the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial race, reflected in the market's 85.5% implied probability for his victory. Recent Quaest and other surveys show him leading with 35–46% first-round support, well ahead of Requião Filho and Rafael Greca. Moro’s candidacy was officially confirmed by the PL party in early August 2026, consolidating coalition backing after the incumbent Ratinho Júnior became term-limited and his designated successor polled in single digits. Traders appear to price in these polling trends, low undecided shifts in stimulated scenarios, and the absence of major late disruptions as key factors sustaining the frontrunner’s odds ahead of the October election.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$39,908終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Senator Sergio Moro holds a commanding position in the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial race, reflected in the market's 85.5% implied probability for his victory. Recent Quaest and other surveys show him leading with 35–46% first-round support, well ahead of Requião Filho and Rafael Greca. Moro’s candidacy was officially confirmed by the PL party in early August 2026, consolidating coalition backing after the incumbent Ratinho Júnior became term-limited and his designated successor polled in single digits. Traders appear to price in these polling trends, low undecided shifts in stimulated scenarios, and the absence of major late disruptions as key factors sustaining the frontrunner’s odds ahead of the October election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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