Recent June 2026 polling shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round intentions near 40 percent, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro near 30 percent, leaving a fragmented field for third place among lower-polling right-leaning contenders. Renan Santos of the Mission Party has posted the strongest recent gains in national surveys, particularly among younger voters, positioning him ahead of Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado in trader assessments of who will finish third on October 4. Zema and Caiado, both sitting governors, remain competitive alternatives within the opposition but trail Santos in current vote-intention data. Forums among right-wing pre-candidates have highlighted efforts at unity without altering the lower-tier polling hierarchy. Market pricing reflects this distribution of support while leaving room for shifts as official candidacies are confirmed ahead of the first round.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Renan Santos 62%
Ronaldo Caiado 16%
Romeu Zema 11%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8.5%
$390,404 Vol.
$390,404 Vol.
Renan Santos
62%
Ronaldo Caiado
16%
Romeu Zema
11%
Flávio Bolsonaro
9%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Renan Santos 62%
Ronaldo Caiado 16%
Romeu Zema 11%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8.5%
$390,404 Vol.
$390,404 Vol.
Renan Santos
62%
Ronaldo Caiado
16%
Romeu Zema
11%
Flávio Bolsonaro
9%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent June 2026 polling shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round intentions near 40 percent, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro near 30 percent, leaving a fragmented field for third place among lower-polling right-leaning contenders. Renan Santos of the Mission Party has posted the strongest recent gains in national surveys, particularly among younger voters, positioning him ahead of Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado in trader assessments of who will finish third on October 4. Zema and Caiado, both sitting governors, remain competitive alternatives within the opposition but trail Santos in current vote-intention data. Forums among right-wing pre-candidates have highlighted efforts at unity without altering the lower-tier polling hierarchy. Market pricing reflects this distribution of support while leaving room for shifts as official candidacies are confirmed ahead of the first round.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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