Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term against a fragmented field led by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who secured his father's endorsement in December 2025 after Jair Bolsonaro became ineligible. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from March and April 2026, show Lula and Flávio statistically tied in simulated runoffs at roughly 46-48 percent each, while first-round projections place Lula near 44-46 percent and Flávio near 39-40 percent. Other declared candidates such as Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD continue to split right-leaning support, though endorsements or withdrawals could consolidate votes before the October ballot. Economic indicators, approval ratings around 44-47 percent for the president, and any late shifts among center-right governors remain the main variables that could determine which two candidates advance to the October 25 runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$320,166 Vol.
2026/10/04
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルバ
83%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
72%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
8%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
4%
ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
3%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
3%
$320,166 Vol.
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルバ
$134,615 Vol.
83%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$20,597 Vol.
72%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$51,135 Vol.
8%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$26,595 Vol.
4%
ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
$11,175 Vol.
3%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
$76,048 Vol.
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term against a fragmented field led by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who secured his father's endorsement in December 2025 after Jair Bolsonaro became ineligible. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from March and April 2026, show Lula and Flávio statistically tied in simulated runoffs at roughly 46-48 percent each, while first-round projections place Lula near 44-46 percent and Flávio near 39-40 percent. Other declared candidates such as Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD continue to split right-leaning support, though endorsements or withdrawals could consolidate votes before the October ballot. Economic indicators, approval ratings around 44-47 percent for the president, and any late shifts among center-right governors remain the main variables that could determine which two candidates advance to the October 25 runoff.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
音量
$320,166終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term against a fragmented field led by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who secured his father's endorsement in December 2025 after Jair Bolsonaro became ineligible. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from March and April 2026, show Lula and Flávio statistically tied in simulated runoffs at roughly 46-48 percent each, while first-round projections place Lula near 44-46 percent and Flávio near 39-40 percent. Other declared candidates such as Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD continue to split right-leaning support, though endorsements or withdrawals could consolidate votes before the October ballot. Economic indicators, approval ratings around 44-47 percent for the president, and any late shifts among center-right governors remain the main variables that could determine which two candidates advance to the October 25 runoff.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$320,166終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term against a fragmented field led by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who secured his father's endorsement in December 2025 after Jair Bolsonaro became ineligible. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from March and April 2026, show Lula and Flávio statistically tied in simulated runoffs at roughly 46-48 percent each, while first-round projections place Lula near 44-46 percent and Flávio near 39-40 percent. Other declared candidates such as Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD continue to split right-leaning support, though endorsements or withdrawals could consolidate votes before the October ballot. Economic indicators, approval ratings around 44-47 percent for the president, and any late shifts among center-right governors remain the main variables that could determine which two candidates advance to the October 25 runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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