Recent polls, including Genial/Quaest (April 24-28) and Instituto Veritá (April 23-27), position Ciro Gomes as the first-round frontrunner for Ceará governor with 41-54% support across scenarios, driving trader consensus to 62.5% implied probability and reflecting his strong lead over incumbent Elmano de Freitas (32-35%). Elmano holds second at 22.5%, bolstered by incumbency but trailing in head-to-heads, while senator Camilo Santana's 12.7% accounts for polls showing him edging Ciro in potential second-round matchups (44-39%), though his PT nomination remains uncertain. Marginal figures for Eduardo Girão (5.5%), Roberto Cláudio (2%), and Capitão Wagner (0.3%) match their low poll shares. With the October 4 first-round vote approaching, PT candidate selection and fresh polling could alter dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Ciro Gomes 63%
Elmano de Freitas 22%
カミロ・サンタナ 12.7%
Roberto Cláudio 2.0%
$53,182 Vol.
$53,182 Vol.
2026/10/04
Ciro Gomes
63%
Elmano de Freitas
22%
カミロ・サンタナ
13%
Roberto Cláudio
2%
Eduardo Girão
6%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Ciro Gomes 63%
Elmano de Freitas 22%
カミロ・サンタナ 12.7%
Roberto Cláudio 2.0%
$53,182 Vol.
$53,182 Vol.
2026/10/04
Ciro Gomes
$35,971 Vol.
63%
Elmano de Freitas
$5,657 Vol.
22%
カミロ・サンタナ
$2,888 Vol.
13%
Roberto Cláudio
$1,785 Vol.
2%
Eduardo Girão
$3,075 Vol.
6%
Capitão Wagner
$3,806 Vol.
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls, including Genial/Quaest (April 24-28) and Instituto Veritá (April 23-27), position Ciro Gomes as the first-round frontrunner for Ceará governor with 41-54% support across scenarios, driving trader consensus to 62.5% implied probability and reflecting his strong lead over incumbent Elmano de Freitas (32-35%). Elmano holds second at 22.5%, bolstered by incumbency but trailing in head-to-heads, while senator Camilo Santana's 12.7% accounts for polls showing him edging Ciro in potential second-round matchups (44-39%), though his PT nomination remains uncertain. Marginal figures for Eduardo Girão (5.5%), Roberto Cláudio (2%), and Capitão Wagner (0.3%) match their low poll shares. With the October 4 first-round vote approaching, PT candidate selection and fresh polling could alter dynamics.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
音量
$53,182終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls, including Genial/Quaest (April 24-28) and Instituto Veritá (April 23-27), position Ciro Gomes as the first-round frontrunner for Ceará governor with 41-54% support across scenarios, driving trader consensus to 62.5% implied probability and reflecting his strong lead over incumbent Elmano de Freitas (32-35%). Elmano holds second at 22.5%, bolstered by incumbency but trailing in head-to-heads, while senator Camilo Santana's 12.7% accounts for polls showing him edging Ciro in potential second-round matchups (44-39%), though his PT nomination remains uncertain. Marginal figures for Eduardo Girão (5.5%), Roberto Cláudio (2%), and Capitão Wagner (0.3%) match their low poll shares. With the October 4 first-round vote approaching, PT candidate selection and fresh polling could alter dynamics.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$53,182終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including Genial/Quaest (April 24-28) and Instituto Veritá (April 23-27), position Ciro Gomes as the first-round frontrunner for Ceará governor with 41-54% support across scenarios, driving trader consensus to 62.5% implied probability and reflecting his strong lead over incumbent Elmano de Freitas (32-35%). Elmano holds second at 22.5%, bolstered by incumbency but trailing in head-to-heads, while senator Camilo Santana's 12.7% accounts for polls showing him edging Ciro in potential second-round matchups (44-39%), though his PT nomination remains uncertain. Marginal figures for Eduardo Girão (5.5%), Roberto Cláudio (2%), and Capitão Wagner (0.3%) match their low poll shares. With the October 4 first-round vote approaching, PT candidate selection and fresh polling could alter dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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