Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) as the leading contender for most seats in the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election under Sweden's proportional representation system, reflecting consistent late-April polls from firms like Ipsos, Demoskop, Indikator Opinion, and Novus showing S at 32-34%—roughly double Sweden Democrats (SD) support at 16-19% and Moderates (M) at 6%. This commanding position stems from the incumbent Tidö government's struggles, including Liberal Party (L) internal divisions after March's "Sweden Promise" pact with SD triggered resignations and a narrow leadership re-election for Simona Mohamsson. Red-Green bloc projections indicate a parliamentary majority around 190 seats versus Tidö's 156-159. Upsets could arise from SD surges on immigration, economic shocks, or campaign momentum shifts before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce removal of “red‑line” restrictions on SD coalition participation, signalling a possible reunification of the Tidö bloc and causing a sharp
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) dips to 90%3%
Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce removal of “red‑line” restrictions on SD coalition participation, signalling a possible reunification of the Tidö bloc and causing a sharp drop in S’s










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