Recent national polls for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential contest show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with 38–42% support, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s and a fragmented field of other candidates each in single digits. The remainder consists of undecided voters and null/blank ballots, typically 10–15%. Because no contender approaches the 50% threshold required for an outright victory under Brazil’s two-round system, the leading outcome remains a runoff between the top two finishers on October 25. Recent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, and Nexus have shown stable patterns with only marginal shifts in the undecided share, reinforcing trader consensus that an outright first-round win is improbable absent a sharp consolidation of support behind one candidate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$80,125 Vol.
$80,125 Vol.
2026/10/04
$80,125 Vol.
$80,125 Vol.
2026/10/04
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential contest show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with 38–42% support, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s and a fragmented field of other candidates each in single digits. The remainder consists of undecided voters and null/blank ballots, typically 10–15%. Because no contender approaches the 50% threshold required for an outright victory under Brazil’s two-round system, the leading outcome remains a runoff between the top two finishers on October 25. Recent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, and Nexus have shown stable patterns with only marginal shifts in the undecided share, reinforcing trader consensus that an outright first-round win is improbable absent a sharp consolidation of support behind one candidate.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
音量
$80,125終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential contest show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with 38–42% support, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s and a fragmented field of other candidates each in single digits. The remainder consists of undecided voters and null/blank ballots, typically 10–15%. Because no contender approaches the 50% threshold required for an outright victory under Brazil’s two-round system, the leading outcome remains a runoff between the top two finishers on October 25. Recent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, and Nexus have shown stable patterns with only marginal shifts in the undecided share, reinforcing trader consensus that an outright first-round win is improbable absent a sharp consolidation of support behind one candidate.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$80,125終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent national polls for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential contest show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with 38–42% support, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s and a fragmented field of other candidates each in single digits. The remainder consists of undecided voters and null/blank ballots, typically 10–15%. Because no contender approaches the 50% threshold required for an outright victory under Brazil’s two-round system, the leading outcome remains a runoff between the top two finishers on October 25. Recent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, and Nexus have shown stable patterns with only marginal shifts in the undecided share, reinforcing trader consensus that an outright first-round win is improbable absent a sharp consolidation of support behind one candidate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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