Recent polling for Brazil’s October 2026 presidential election shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Liberal Party candidate Flávio Bolsonaro each drawing roughly 33–40 percent support, with the balance split among several right-leaning figures including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This fragmented field, reinforced by Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son and the absence of any dominant frontrunner, leaves both leaders far short of the 50 percent threshold required for an outright first-round victory. Traders therefore price an automatic runoff as the strongly favored outcome, consistent with Brazil’s historical pattern of second-round contests when multiple viable candidates remain in the race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$65,530 Vol.
$65,530 Vol.
2026/10/04
はい
$65,530 Vol.
$65,530 Vol.
2026/10/04
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 2026 presidential election shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Liberal Party candidate Flávio Bolsonaro each drawing roughly 33–40 percent support, with the balance split among several right-leaning figures including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This fragmented field, reinforced by Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son and the absence of any dominant frontrunner, leaves both leaders far short of the 50 percent threshold required for an outright first-round victory. Traders therefore price an automatic runoff as the strongly favored outcome, consistent with Brazil’s historical pattern of second-round contests when multiple viable candidates remain in the race.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
音量
$65,530終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 2026 presidential election shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Liberal Party candidate Flávio Bolsonaro each drawing roughly 33–40 percent support, with the balance split among several right-leaning figures including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This fragmented field, reinforced by Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son and the absence of any dominant frontrunner, leaves both leaders far short of the 50 percent threshold required for an outright first-round victory. Traders therefore price an automatic runoff as the strongly favored outcome, consistent with Brazil’s historical pattern of second-round contests when multiple viable candidates remain in the race.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$65,530終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Brazil’s October 2026 presidential election shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Liberal Party candidate Flávio Bolsonaro each drawing roughly 33–40 percent support, with the balance split among several right-leaning figures including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This fragmented field, reinforced by Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son and the absence of any dominant frontrunner, leaves both leaders far short of the 50 percent threshold required for an outright first-round victory. Traders therefore price an automatic runoff as the strongly favored outcome, consistent with Brazil’s historical pattern of second-round contests when multiple viable candidates remain in the race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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