PL leads the Chamber of Deputies race with a 61% implied probability due to its position as the largest current caucus, extensive state-level infrastructure, and effective candidate recruitment under the open-list proportional system. This structural edge aligns with right-wing momentum from Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign, which polls show remains competitive with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in both first-round and runoff scenarios as of mid-September 2026. UPB trails at 39.9% amid fragmentation among center-right and centrão groups, while smaller parties stay marginal given the 2% electoral threshold and limited scale. The October 4 vote coincides with the presidential contest, amplifying coattail effects for organized parties like PL without recent legislative-specific catalysts altering the positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日PL 61%
UPB 39.4%
FE Brasil <1%
MDB <1%
$117,765 Vol.
$117,765 Vol.
2026/10/03
PL
61%
UPB
39%
FE Brasil
1%
MDB
1%
MISSÃO
<1%
PSD
<1%
レプブリカノス
<1%
PSDB-CIDADANIA
<1%
PODE
<1%
PDT
<1%
PSB
<1%
PSOL-REDE
<1%
PRD-SOLIDARIEDADE
<1%
Avante
<1%
NOVO
<1%
PL 61%
UPB 39.4%
FE Brasil <1%
MDB <1%
$117,765 Vol.
$117,765 Vol.
2026/10/03
PL
$47,616 Vol.
61%
UPB
$16,996 Vol.
39%
FE Brasil
$6,777 Vol.
1%
MDB
$6,303 Vol.
1%
MISSÃO
$8,534 Vol.
<1%
PSD
$4,639 Vol.
<1%
レプブリカノス
$3,383 Vol.
<1%
PSDB-CIDADANIA
$3,143 Vol.
<1%
PODE
$2,399 Vol.
<1%
PDT
$3,060 Vol.
<1%
PSB
$3,426 Vol.
<1%
PSOL-REDE
$2,948 Vol.
<1%
PRD-SOLIDARIEDADE
$3,062 Vol.
<1%
Avante
$3,096 Vol.
<1%
NOVO
$2,383 Vol.
<1%
The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).PL leads the Chamber of Deputies race with a 61% implied probability due to its position as the largest current caucus, extensive state-level infrastructure, and effective candidate recruitment under the open-list proportional system. This structural edge aligns with right-wing momentum from Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign, which polls show remains competitive with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in both first-round and runoff scenarios as of mid-September 2026. UPB trails at 39.9% amid fragmentation among center-right and centrão groups, while smaller parties stay marginal given the 2% electoral threshold and limited scale. The October 4 vote coincides with the presidential contest, amplifying coattail effects for organized parties like PL without recent legislative-specific catalysts altering the positioning.
The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
音量
$117,765終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:44 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).PL leads the Chamber of Deputies race with a 61% implied probability due to its position as the largest current caucus, extensive state-level infrastructure, and effective candidate recruitment under the open-list proportional system. This structural edge aligns with right-wing momentum from Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign, which polls show remains competitive with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in both first-round and runoff scenarios as of mid-September 2026. UPB trails at 39.9% amid fragmentation among center-right and centrão groups, while smaller parties stay marginal given the 2% electoral threshold and limited scale. The October 4 vote coincides with the presidential contest, amplifying coattail effects for organized parties like PL without recent legislative-specific catalysts altering the positioning.
The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).
音量
$117,765終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:44 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...PL leads the Chamber of Deputies race with a 61% implied probability due to its position as the largest current caucus, extensive state-level infrastructure, and effective candidate recruitment under the open-list proportional system. This structural edge aligns with right-wing momentum from Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign, which polls show remains competitive with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in both first-round and runoff scenarios as of mid-September 2026. UPB trails at 39.9% amid fragmentation among center-right and centrão groups, while smaller parties stay marginal given the 2% electoral threshold and limited scale. The October 4 vote coincides with the presidential contest, amplifying coattail effects for organized parties like PL without recent legislative-specific catalysts altering the positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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