Mark Sutcliffe holds the strongest position as incumbent in Ottawa’s October 26, 2026 municipal election, with traders assigning him a 71.5 percent implied probability of victory. His structural advantages include name recognition and established municipal networks, which have sustained lead positioning even as recent Liaison Strategies polling shows his approval ratings underwater on transit, housing, and homelessness. Challengers Jeff Leiper, Neil Saravanamuttoo, Alex Lawson, and Catherine McKenney filed nomination papers on the first day of the campaign period in early May, signaling early opposition momentum, yet the field remains fragmented with no single contender consolidating support among undecided voters. Prediction market pricing reflects the historical edge for sitting mayors in Canadian municipal contests, tempered by the possibility that late-campaign developments on key local issues could narrow the gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日マーク・サトクリフ 72%
ジェフ・ライパー 22%
ニール・サラバナムットゥ 1.9%
アレックス・ローソン <1%
$12,737 Vol.
$12,737 Vol.
マーク・サトクリフ
72%
ジェフ・ライパー
22%
ニール・サラバナムットゥ
2%
アレックス・ローソン
1%
キャサリン・マッケニー
<1%
マーク・サトクリフ 72%
ジェフ・ライパー 22%
ニール・サラバナムットゥ 1.9%
アレックス・ローソン <1%
$12,737 Vol.
$12,737 Vol.
マーク・サトクリフ
72%
ジェフ・ライパー
22%
ニール・サラバナムットゥ
2%
アレックス・ローソン
1%
キャサリン・マッケニー
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mark Sutcliffe holds the strongest position as incumbent in Ottawa’s October 26, 2026 municipal election, with traders assigning him a 71.5 percent implied probability of victory. His structural advantages include name recognition and established municipal networks, which have sustained lead positioning even as recent Liaison Strategies polling shows his approval ratings underwater on transit, housing, and homelessness. Challengers Jeff Leiper, Neil Saravanamuttoo, Alex Lawson, and Catherine McKenney filed nomination papers on the first day of the campaign period in early May, signaling early opposition momentum, yet the field remains fragmented with no single contender consolidating support among undecided voters. Prediction market pricing reflects the historical edge for sitting mayors in Canadian municipal contests, tempered by the possibility that late-campaign developments on key local issues could narrow the gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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