Luciano Zucco (PL) leads the Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial race in trader consensus, reflecting his party’s organizational strength and polling momentum among conservative voters ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round. Recent party conventions formalized Zucco’s candidacy alongside Juliana Brizola (PDT), whose left-leaning base and running mate Edegar Pretto provide a clear alternative in a polarized contest. Gabriel Souza (MDB), positioned as the continuity choice of incumbent Eduardo Leite, trails with limited early support. Late-July Genial/Quaest surveys showed Brizola and Zucco in a technical tie at 22-24 percent, while other polls gave Zucco a narrow edge; these figures, combined with national trends favoring PL-aligned candidates in runoffs, underpin the current implied probabilities. Scheduled debates and further polling through September remain key variables that could shift positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Luciano Zucco 62%
Juliana Brizola 36%
Gabriel Souza 4.3%
Marcelo Maranata <1%
$89,935 Vol.
$89,935 Vol.
2026/10/04
Luciano Zucco
62%
Juliana Brizola
36%
Gabriel Souza
4%
Marcelo Maranata
1%
Luis Carlos Heinze
<1%
Luciano Zucco 62%
Juliana Brizola 36%
Gabriel Souza 4.3%
Marcelo Maranata <1%
$89,935 Vol.
$89,935 Vol.
2026/10/04
Luciano Zucco
$39,688 Vol.
62%
Juliana Brizola
$32,418 Vol.
36%
Gabriel Souza
$9,082 Vol.
4%
Marcelo Maranata
$6,330 Vol.
1%
Luis Carlos Heinze
$2,418 Vol.
<1%
The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Luciano Zucco (PL) leads the Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial race in trader consensus, reflecting his party’s organizational strength and polling momentum among conservative voters ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round. Recent party conventions formalized Zucco’s candidacy alongside Juliana Brizola (PDT), whose left-leaning base and running mate Edegar Pretto provide a clear alternative in a polarized contest. Gabriel Souza (MDB), positioned as the continuity choice of incumbent Eduardo Leite, trails with limited early support. Late-July Genial/Quaest surveys showed Brizola and Zucco in a technical tie at 22-24 percent, while other polls gave Zucco a narrow edge; these figures, combined with national trends favoring PL-aligned candidates in runoffs, underpin the current implied probabilities. Scheduled debates and further polling through September remain key variables that could shift positioning.
The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： May 28, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
音量
$89,935終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
May 28, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Luciano Zucco (PL) leads the Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial race in trader consensus, reflecting his party’s organizational strength and polling momentum among conservative voters ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round. Recent party conventions formalized Zucco’s candidacy alongside Juliana Brizola (PDT), whose left-leaning base and running mate Edegar Pretto provide a clear alternative in a polarized contest. Gabriel Souza (MDB), positioned as the continuity choice of incumbent Eduardo Leite, trails with limited early support. Late-July Genial/Quaest surveys showed Brizola and Zucco in a technical tie at 22-24 percent, while other polls gave Zucco a narrow edge; these figures, combined with national trends favoring PL-aligned candidates in runoffs, underpin the current implied probabilities. Scheduled debates and further polling through September remain key variables that could shift positioning.
The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$89,935終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
May 28, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Luciano Zucco (PL) leads the Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial race in trader consensus, reflecting his party’s organizational strength and polling momentum among conservative voters ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round. Recent party conventions formalized Zucco’s candidacy alongside Juliana Brizola (PDT), whose left-leaning base and running mate Edegar Pretto provide a clear alternative in a polarized contest. Gabriel Souza (MDB), positioned as the continuity choice of incumbent Eduardo Leite, trails with limited early support. Late-July Genial/Quaest surveys showed Brizola and Zucco in a technical tie at 22-24 percent, while other polls gave Zucco a narrow edge; these figures, combined with national trends favoring PL-aligned candidates in runoffs, underpin the current implied probabilities. Scheduled debates and further polling through September remain key variables that could shift positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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