**Brazil's Central Bank (BCB) Copom faces a closely balanced November Selic decision amid inflation at 4.64% in June 2026—still well above the 3% target—despite modest easing from May's 4.72% reading.** Elevated 2026 inflation expectations near 5.3%, resilient economic activity, and a tight labor market support the current 49% market-implied probability of no change, following three consecutive 25 bp cuts that brought the policy rate to 14.25% in June. The BCB's gradual calibration cycle, highlighted in recent statements emphasizing data dependence and risks from energy prices, positions a 25 bp decrease at 31.5% as the next most likely outcome if incoming IPCA prints and Focus survey updates show continued moderation. Key catalysts include the August 5 meeting (widely expected to deliver another 25 bp cut to 14.00%), subsequent inflation releases, and the policy horizon extending toward 2027 projections around 3.7%. Market-implied odds reflect trader caution over unanchored expectations versus the restrictive stance of real rates near 9-10%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 49%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 32%
50ベーシスポイント超の引き下げ 12%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 5.5%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
50ベーシスポイント超の引き上げ
5%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
5%
変更なし
49%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
32%
50ベーシスポイント超の引き下げ
12%
変更なし 49%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 32%
50ベーシスポイント超の引き下げ 12%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 5.5%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
50ベーシスポイント超の引き上げ
$115 Vol.
5%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$128 Vol.
5%
変更なし
$898 Vol.
49%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$125 Vol.
32%
50ベーシスポイント超の引き下げ
$274 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Brazil's Central Bank (BCB) Copom faces a closely balanced November Selic decision amid inflation at 4.64% in June 2026—still well above the 3% target—despite modest easing from May's 4.72% reading.** Elevated 2026 inflation expectations near 5.3%, resilient economic activity, and a tight labor market support the current 49% market-implied probability of no change, following three consecutive 25 bp cuts that brought the policy rate to 14.25% in June. The BCB's gradual calibration cycle, highlighted in recent statements emphasizing data dependence and risks from energy prices, positions a 25 bp decrease at 31.5% as the next most likely outcome if incoming IPCA prints and Focus survey updates show continued moderation. Key catalysts include the August 5 meeting (widely expected to deliver another 25 bp cut to 14.00%), subsequent inflation releases, and the policy horizon extending toward 2027 projections around 3.7%. Market-implied odds reflect trader caution over unanchored expectations versus the restrictive stance of real rates near 9-10%.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
音量
$1,539終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Brazil's Central Bank (BCB) Copom faces a closely balanced November Selic decision amid inflation at 4.64% in June 2026—still well above the 3% target—despite modest easing from May's 4.72% reading.** Elevated 2026 inflation expectations near 5.3%, resilient economic activity, and a tight labor market support the current 49% market-implied probability of no change, following three consecutive 25 bp cuts that brought the policy rate to 14.25% in June. The BCB's gradual calibration cycle, highlighted in recent statements emphasizing data dependence and risks from energy prices, positions a 25 bp decrease at 31.5% as the next most likely outcome if incoming IPCA prints and Focus survey updates show continued moderation. Key catalysts include the August 5 meeting (widely expected to deliver another 25 bp cut to 14.00%), subsequent inflation releases, and the policy horizon extending toward 2027 projections around 3.7%. Market-implied odds reflect trader caution over unanchored expectations versus the restrictive stance of real rates near 9-10%.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
音量
$1,539終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Brazil's Central Bank (BCB) Copom faces a closely balanced November Selic decision amid inflation at 4.64% in June 2026—still well above the 3% target—despite modest easing from May's 4.72% reading.** Elevated 2026 inflation expectations near 5.3%, resilient economic activity, and a tight labor market support the current 49% market-implied probability of no change, following three consecutive 25 bp cuts that brought the policy rate to 14.25% in June. The BCB's gradual calibration cycle, highlighted in recent statements emphasizing data dependence and risks from energy prices, positions a 25 bp decrease at 31.5% as the next most likely outcome if incoming IPCA prints and Focus survey updates show continued moderation. Key catalysts include the August 5 meeting (widely expected to deliver another 25 bp cut to 14.00%), subsequent inflation releases, and the policy horizon extending toward 2027 projections around 3.7%. Market-implied odds reflect trader caution over unanchored expectations versus the restrictive stance of real rates near 9-10%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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