Recent upward momentum in South African inflation, with the June 2026 headline rate reaching 5.0% year-over-year—its highest since mid-2024—has shaped trader positioning around the 4.1-4.7% range for the full-year average. Elevated transportation and fuel costs, tied to global energy pressures, alongside firmer housing and core measures at 4.1%, have prompted the South African Reserve Bank to lift its 2026 forecast to 4.4%. With the next CPI release due shortly and monetary policy decisions ahead, closely matched implied probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether these pressures will persist or ease amid rand movements and commodity trends. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on the annual outturn.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4.1〜4.4% 29.6%
4.4〜4.7% 22.1%
3.8〜4.1% 13.9%
4.7〜5.0% 9.5%
$39,551 Vol.
$39,551 Vol.
2.6%未満
<1%
2.6~2.9%
<1%
2.9~3.2%
3%
3.2~3.5%
3%
3.5~3.8%
4%
3.8〜4.1%
14%
4.1〜4.4%
30%
4.4〜4.7%
22%
4.7〜5.0%
10%
>5.0%
9%
4.1〜4.4% 29.6%
4.4〜4.7% 22.1%
3.8〜4.1% 13.9%
4.7〜5.0% 9.5%
$39,551 Vol.
$39,551 Vol.
2.6%未満
<1%
2.6~2.9%
<1%
2.9~3.2%
3%
3.2~3.5%
3%
3.5~3.8%
4%
3.8〜4.1%
14%
4.1〜4.4%
30%
4.4〜4.7%
22%
4.7〜5.0%
10%
>5.0%
9%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
マーケット開始日: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent upward momentum in South African inflation, with the June 2026 headline rate reaching 5.0% year-over-year—its highest since mid-2024—has shaped trader positioning around the 4.1-4.7% range for the full-year average. Elevated transportation and fuel costs, tied to global energy pressures, alongside firmer housing and core measures at 4.1%, have prompted the South African Reserve Bank to lift its 2026 forecast to 4.4%. With the next CPI release due shortly and monetary policy decisions ahead, closely matched implied probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether these pressures will persist or ease amid rand movements and commodity trends. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on the annual outturn.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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