Polymarket traders price China's 2026 annual CPI in a tight race between the 0.6–1.0% band at 31% implied probability and 1.1–1.5% at 30%, reflecting April's year-on-year consumer price index acceleration to 1.2%—beating consensus estimates of 0.8–0.9%—driven by imported energy cost pressures from Mideast tensions and rising oil prices amid the Iran conflict. This uptick from March's 1.0% and Q1's 0.9% average has nudged sentiment higher, though persistent weak domestic demand and producer price index stabilization at low levels temper upside risks, aligning with analyst forecasts around 0.6–1.0% from Focus Economics and BofA. Key swing factors include May CPI data due mid-June and People's Bank of China policy signals on imported inflation, with higher bands like 2.5%+ at just 8.1% signaling trader consensus for subdued price growth absent demand rebound.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1.1~1.5% 44%
0.6~1.0% 33%
2.0~2.4% 8.0%
2.5%以上 7.6%
$39,903 Vol.
$39,903 Vol.
<-1.0%
<1%
-0.9~-0.5%
<1%
-0.4~0.0%
<1%
0.1~0.5%
4%
0.6~1.0%
33%
1.1~1.5%
30%
1.6~2.0%
7%
2.0~2.4%
8%
2.5%以上
8%
1.1~1.5% 44%
0.6~1.0% 33%
2.0~2.4% 8.0%
2.5%以上 7.6%
$39,903 Vol.
$39,903 Vol.
<-1.0%
<1%
-0.9~-0.5%
<1%
-0.4~0.0%
<1%
0.1~0.5%
4%
0.6~1.0%
33%
1.1~1.5%
30%
1.6~2.0%
7%
2.0~2.4%
8%
2.5%以上
8%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
マーケット開始日: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price China's 2026 annual CPI in a tight race between the 0.6–1.0% band at 31% implied probability and 1.1–1.5% at 30%, reflecting April's year-on-year consumer price index acceleration to 1.2%—beating consensus estimates of 0.8–0.9%—driven by imported energy cost pressures from Mideast tensions and rising oil prices amid the Iran conflict. This uptick from March's 1.0% and Q1's 0.9% average has nudged sentiment higher, though persistent weak domestic demand and producer price index stabilization at low levels temper upside risks, aligning with analyst forecasts around 0.6–1.0% from Focus Economics and BofA. Key swing factors include May CPI data due mid-June and People's Bank of China policy signals on imported inflation, with higher bands like 2.5%+ at just 8.1% signaling trader consensus for subdued price growth absent demand rebound.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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