**The Bank of Russia’s September 11 decision follows its July 24 cut of 25 basis points to 14.00 percent, a smaller step than many analysts anticipated amid one-off fuel price spikes from refinery disruptions.** The central bank raised its 2026 inflation outlook to 6.0–7.0 percent while trimming GDP growth projections to 0.0–1.0 percent, citing temporary supply constraints, elevated inflation expectations, and a more expansionary fiscal stance over the medium term. Its baseline forecast implies an average key rate of 14.5–14.6 percent for 2026, supporting a measured approach to further easing. Underlying inflation measures remain near the 4–5 percent annualized range, and lending growth has slowed, yet pro-inflationary risks from fiscal policy and external conditions favor caution. Traders therefore price no change as the leading outcome, while still assigning meaningful probability to another modest reduction given the ongoing easing cycle and subdued economic momentum. A hike remains a remote possibility absent major upside surprises in inflation data.