The Bank of Russia is widely expected to hold its key rate steady at 14% when the board meets on October 23, as recent signals from Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin indicate the draft federal budget parameters align closely with the July baseline forecast and do not warrant an immediate adjustment. Persistent inflation pressures, elevated inflation expectations, and moderate third-quarter growth have reinforced the cautious stance adopted after the September 11 hold—the first pause following ten consecutive cuts. Market pricing reflects this consensus, with traders assigning only limited probability to a modest reduction and negligible odds of an increase, consistent with the central bank's emphasis on incoming data over fiscal revisions. The October decision will also include an updated medium-term outlook that could clarify the path for later meetings.