China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the National People's Congress in March, anchors trader consensus at 71% probability for the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with economist forecasts averaging around 4.6% from institutions like the IMF, Vanguard, and UBS. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year—beating expectations of 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%—driven by resilient exports and industrial output amid a property slump and global risks from the Iran conflict, though policymakers have held back major stimulus. Moderation is anticipated in H2 due to fading base effects and trade headwinds, with 26% odds on 5.0–6.0% reflecting Q1 momentum, while higher ranges face structural barriers like debt and demographics. Q2 data due soon could shift sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4.0～5.0％ 71%
5.0〜6.0％ 24.1%
6.0～7.0％ 2.1%
3.0～4.0％ 1.5%
$527,253 Vol.
$527,253 Vol.
2026/01/31
1.0％未満
<1%
1.0〜2.0％
<1%
2.0～3.0％
<1%
3.0～4.0％
2%
4.0～5.0％
71%
5.0〜6.0％
24%
6.0～7.0％
2%
7.0～8.0％
<1%
8.0～9.0％
<1%
9.0％以上
<1%
4.0～5.0％ 71%
5.0〜6.0％ 24.1%
6.0～7.0％ 2.1%
3.0～4.0％ 1.5%
$527,253 Vol.
$527,253 Vol.
2026/01/31
1.0％未満
$41,400 Vol.
<1%
1.0〜2.0％
$40,586 Vol.
<1%
2.0～3.0％
$20,992 Vol.
<1%
3.0～4.0％
$43,365 Vol.
2%
4.0～5.0％
$135,713 Vol.
71%
5.0〜6.0％
$49,082 Vol.
24%
6.0～7.0％
$47,950 Vol.
2%
7.0～8.0％
$44,456 Vol.
<1%
8.0～9.0％
$20,174 Vol.
<1%
9.0％以上
$83,534 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the National People's Congress in March, anchors trader consensus at 71% probability for the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with economist forecasts averaging around 4.6% from institutions like the IMF, Vanguard, and UBS. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year—beating expectations of 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%—driven by resilient exports and industrial output amid a property slump and global risks from the Iran conflict, though policymakers have held back major stimulus. Moderation is anticipated in H2 due to fading base effects and trade headwinds, with 26% odds on 5.0–6.0% reflecting Q1 momentum, while higher ranges face structural barriers like debt and demographics. Q2 data due soon could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
音量
$527,253終了日
2026/01/31マーケット開始日
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the National People's Congress in March, anchors trader consensus at 71% probability for the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with economist forecasts averaging around 4.6% from institutions like the IMF, Vanguard, and UBS. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year—beating expectations of 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%—driven by resilient exports and industrial output amid a property slump and global risks from the Iran conflict, though policymakers have held back major stimulus. Moderation is anticipated in H2 due to fading base effects and trade headwinds, with 26% odds on 5.0–6.0% reflecting Q1 momentum, while higher ranges face structural barriers like debt and demographics. Q2 data due soon could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$527,253終了日
2026/01/31マーケット開始日
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the National People's Congress in March, anchors trader consensus at 71% probability for the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with economist forecasts averaging around 4.6% from institutions like the IMF, Vanguard, and UBS. Q1 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year—beating expectations of 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%—driven by resilient exports and industrial output amid a property slump and global risks from the Iran conflict, though policymakers have held back major stimulus. Moderation is anticipated in H2 due to fading base effects and trade headwinds, with 26% odds on 5.0–6.0% reflecting Q1 momentum, while higher ranges face structural barriers like debt and demographics. Q2 data due soon could shift sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問