Market-implied odds of 74.5% for no recession in Japan during 2026 reflect consensus forecasts of positive real GDP growth, with the Bank of Japan projecting 0.5% expansion and private analysts citing 0.8% amid firm domestic demand. Wage gains exceeding inflation continue to support real household income and private consumption, while low unemployment near 2.6% and persistent labor shortages underpin capital expenditure. Recent developments include the BOJ’s April 2026 outlook downgrade from higher prior estimates, driven by elevated crude oil prices linked to Middle East tensions, yet core CPI remains near 1.8% without signaling contraction. Traders are monitoring upcoming Q2 GDP releases and the next Bank of Japan policy meeting for confirmation that external risks, including yen volatility and potential U.S. tariffs, do not derail the underlying recovery trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2027/03/31
新規
新規
2027/03/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.Market-implied odds of 74.5% for no recession in Japan during 2026 reflect consensus forecasts of positive real GDP growth, with the Bank of Japan projecting 0.5% expansion and private analysts citing 0.8% amid firm domestic demand. Wage gains exceeding inflation continue to support real household income and private consumption, while low unemployment near 2.6% and persistent labor shortages underpin capital expenditure. Recent developments include the BOJ’s April 2026 outlook downgrade from higher prior estimates, driven by elevated crude oil prices linked to Middle East tensions, yet core CPI remains near 1.8% without signaling contraction. Traders are monitoring upcoming Q2 GDP releases and the next Bank of Japan policy meeting for confirmation that external risks, including yen volatility and potential U.S. tariffs, do not derail the underlying recovery trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
マーケット開始日： Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
音量
$1,783終了日
2027/03/31マーケット開始日
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.Market-implied odds of 74.5% for no recession in Japan during 2026 reflect consensus forecasts of positive real GDP growth, with the Bank of Japan projecting 0.5% expansion and private analysts citing 0.8% amid firm domestic demand. Wage gains exceeding inflation continue to support real household income and private consumption, while low unemployment near 2.6% and persistent labor shortages underpin capital expenditure. Recent developments include the BOJ’s April 2026 outlook downgrade from higher prior estimates, driven by elevated crude oil prices linked to Middle East tensions, yet core CPI remains near 1.8% without signaling contraction. Traders are monitoring upcoming Q2 GDP releases and the next Bank of Japan policy meeting for confirmation that external risks, including yen volatility and potential U.S. tariffs, do not derail the underlying recovery trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
音量
$1,783終了日
2027/03/31マーケット開始日
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Market-implied odds of 74.5% for no recession in Japan during 2026 reflect consensus forecasts of positive real GDP growth, with the Bank of Japan projecting 0.5% expansion and private analysts citing 0.8% amid firm domestic demand. Wage gains exceeding inflation continue to support real household income and private consumption, while low unemployment near 2.6% and persistent labor shortages underpin capital expenditure. Recent developments include the BOJ’s April 2026 outlook downgrade from higher prior estimates, driven by elevated crude oil prices linked to Middle East tensions, yet core CPI remains near 1.8% without signaling contraction. Traders are monitoring upcoming Q2 GDP releases and the next Bank of Japan policy meeting for confirmation that external risks, including yen volatility and potential U.S. tariffs, do not derail the underlying recovery trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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